Clayton Mainstreet Program

 

Embed or link this publication

Description

Clayton Mainstreet Program

Popular Pages


p. 1

  CLAYTON MAINSTREET COMMUNITY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT     Clayton Mainstreet. Financial Support For This Research Was Provided By New Mexico Economic Development Department. Submitted to April 2006 UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH  

[close]

p. 2

      CLAYTON MAINSTREET COMMUNITY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT By Dr. Jeffrey Mitchell April 2006 UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH  

[close]

p. 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS   3.1 Principal Findings of Community Economic Assessment.......................................... 2 3.2 Explanation of Tables................................................................................................ 7 3.3 Tables and Figures.................................................................................................. 10   TABLES AND FIGURES Clayton: Summary of Demographic, Economic and Housing Characteristics ............... 11 Clayton: Selected Demographic, Economic and Housing Characteristics..................... 12 Clayton: Selected Demographic, Economic and Housing Characteristics..................... 13 Union County: Selected Demographic, Economic and Housing Characteristics ........... 14 Union County: Selected Demographic, Economic and Housing Characteristics ........... 15 Clayton: Taxable Gross Receipts and Pull Factors ....................................................... 16 Clayton Taxable Gross Receipts, Gain/Loss, by Industry, 2002 ................................... 17 Clayton: Taxable Gross Receipts and Pull Factors ....................................................... 18 Shares of Taxable Gross Receipts of Northeast Counties, by MS Communities .......... 19 Location Quotient: Clayton Employment, by Industry, in Relation to Union County, the NE County Region, and New Mexico; Union County Industries in Relation to New Mexico........................................................................................................................... 20 Location Quotient: Clayton Employment, by Occupation, in Relation to Union County, the NE County Region, and New Mexico; Union County Industries in Relation to NM.. 21 Location Quotient: Clayton Employment, by Business Ownership, in Relation to Union County, the NE County Region, and New Mexico; Union County Industries in Relation to New Mexico................................................................................................................... 22 Clayton Employment Location Quotients, by Industry, 2004 ......................................... 23 Clayton, New Mexico Market Area ................................................................................ 24 Clayton – Principal Consumer Clusters......................................................................... 25 UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis 1

[close]

p. 4

3.1 PRINCIPAL FINDINGS OF COMMUNITY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 1. Demographics: Clayton’s population grew very slightly during the period 19902000, consistent with the broader tends in Union County and northeastern New Mexico as a whole. a. Clayton’s population is somewhat older than the New Mexico average (median age of 39.7 y/o vs. 34.8 y/o for New Mexico), with fewer children under 5 y/o (5.6% vs. 7.1% for the state) and significantly higher share of persons over 65 y/o (18.7% vs. 11.7%). b. Despite the older age of the population, there is some evidence that the pattern has begun to slow and even reverse. Between 1990 and 2000, the relative size of the 65 yrs and older population fell modestly (from 20.7% to 18.7%); the share of households receiving social security and retirement income likewise fell (from 39.5% to 33.1%, and from 16.6% to 14.6%, respectively). This modest reversal of the population dynamic is contrary to patterns in other parts of northeastern New Mexico. c. A large majority of Clayton’s is self-identified as white; about one-half claim Hispanic origins, roughly on par with the population of Northeastern Mexico as a whole. About 1 in 10 in Clayton speak Spanish at home, and speak English ‘less than very well.” A very small proportion, only 1%, of the town’s population does not have U.S. citizenship, less than 1/5 the corresponding share for New Mexico. d. During the 1990-2000 period, there was a substantial improvement in level of educational attainment among Clayton’s residents, particularly at the K12 level. In 1990, well over one-third (38.9%) of the town’s residents 25 y/o and over had not completed a high degree degree; by 2000, that share fell to only 20.6%. However, Clayton’s population remains unlikely to pursue post-secondary education – in 2000, only 15.2% held a postsecondary degree (Associates or higher), compared to 25% for the five counties in northeastern New Mexico (Union, Harding, Colfax, Mora and San Miguel) and 29.4% for New Mexico as a whole. 2. Housing: a. In 1990, more than one-quarter of all housing units in Clayton were vacant. With several units removed from the market and many families buying homes, vacancy rates declined sharply by 2000, with only 210 units left unoccupied. Encouragingly, despite these changes, housing remains available and affordable. Housing values in Clayton are 40% below the five-county region, and less than one-half New Mexico’s median value. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   2

[close]

p. 5

3. Income: a. In line with northeastern counties, per capita incomes in Clayton are low ($14,224 vs. $14,123 for northeastern counties and $17,261 for New Mexico). However, unemployment rates are also low (2.3% vs. 3.3% for New Mexico). b. Despite low incomes, poverty is no more prevalent in Clayton than in other parts of New Mexico (14.2% of Clayton’s households live below the poverty line vs. 14.5% for New Mexico; 18.0% of all persons live in poverty vs. 18.1% for the State). However, a persistent pattern of poverty among female-headed households is more pronounced in Clayton than other parts of the State (52.3% of all female-headed households and 77.3% of female-headed households with children, compared to 34.1% and 49.5%, respectively, for the State). 4. Clayton economy: In 2002, Clayton had a modest surplus of $7 million taxable gross receipts, providing for reasonably solid town finances. a. Market area: Clayton lies on the cusp of Dumas and Trinidad Wal-Mart market areas, though somewhat closer to the former. Situated within the thinly populated five-state prairie region, Clayton is the center of a welldefined market for lower-order goods (goods & services that are inexpensive and frequently purchased). This region extends to the west to Gladstone and Grenville, to the east to Texline and Boise City, and includes fewer than 4,000 persons. Because of the sparse population, it is unlikely that Clayton will be able to expand its market area beyond these limits (further to the southeast is Dalhart and Dumas, and to the west is I25, Raton and Las Vegas). b. Clayton’s geographical isolation is both a limitation and a strength. With no large market centers near Clayton, there are few opportunities for the town to significantly expand its draw, but similarly the town’s residents and residents of small nearby communities are relatively less likely to make frequent trips to other towns for goods and services. c. The town’s status as the regional commercial center and seat of Union County, and its location along Rts. 56 and 64/87 ensures markets for certain goods & services. i. Sectors of the economy that draw revenues and gross receipt taxes into Clayton include: miscellaneous business services (2002 surplus of $2.2 million); transportation, communications and utilities (2002 surplus of $1.5 million); eating and drinking establishments (2002 surplus of $1.3 million); hotels and motels (2002 surplus of 3 UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis  

[close]

p. 6

$1.1 million); gasoline stations (the 2002 surplus of $.68 million is an understatement because they include only non-gasoline sales from such establishments; gasoline sales are not subject to gross receipts taxes in New Mexico). NOTE: retail food stores are not a reliable indicator because in most communities groceries are purchased in ‘miscellaneous retail stores’ (e.g. Wal-Mart), resulting in a sharp decline in sales by retail food stores which form the basis for the comparison implicit in this measure). ii. These trends are also reflected in distribution of employment by industry in Clayton. Location Quotients are high for utilities (1.48; base 1.00); finance, insurance and real estate (F.I.R.E., 1.26); public administration (1.18); accommodations and food services (1.31); healthcare and social assistance (1.25); and other services (1.25). d. Weaknesses in Clayton’s economy are characteristic of small, isolated communities in New Mexico and the U.S., and include high value service, amenities, and businesses that function at a large scale. i. According to gross receipts data, losses are in wholesale trade (2002 loss of $.825 million); contract construction (2002 loss of $.730 million); hospitals (2002 loss of $.632 million); legal services (2002 loss of $.440 million); and engineering and architectural services (2002 loss of $.363 million). Again, these patterns are also revealed in employment distributions: wholesale trade (.69; base 1.00); professional and technical services (.57); arts and entertainment (.37); and manufacturing (.81). Given that Clayton does not have a large retail outlet such as WalMart, which currently tends to dominate the retail sector in the U.S., the retail sector is surprise strong in Clayton. Losses in miscellaneous retail (Wal-Mart etc) are more than offset by gains in specialty sectors such as retail food stores. This reflects a central fact (and irony) that shapes the Clayton business environment: its location in the center of a large, thinly populated region, distant from a large metropolitan center, means both that it is unable to establish large businesses that can attract a large customer base and that its residents and residents of smaller regional communities (such as Grenville) are less likely to make frequent trips to larger centers. Thus, while Clayton features few large revenue ‘pulls’ it also suffers from few large ‘leakages’. ii. iii. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   4

[close]

p. 7

5. Recommendations: a. The development of a state prison in Clayton is certain to impact business opportunities in the town in the near and long term. The development of the prison will occur in two phases, with distinct dynamics. The first phase is construction, which will bring high-paying jobs to the area for a brief period of time; many of the employees will be from out-of-town and only temporary. The second operational phase will create permanent but more modest paying jobs. The current labor force is likely inadequate to provide for the demand for labor for the long-term operational phase, requiring either new workers to permanently relocate to the area and/or discouraging Clayton residents from working outside the area. The likely result will involve some combination of the two possibilities. In any case, incomes will likely increase. b. The construction phase will create an immediate increase in demand, encouraging entrepreneurs to create new businesses. This carries substantial risk, as the spike in demand will be largely temporary, settling to a more modest level as the prison moves into an operational phase. It is recommended that the initial increase in demand be met with cautious measures, including the expansion and diversification goods & services provided by existing businesses. Initiatives that require greater investment should be undertaken only with careful consideration of the long-term prospects associated with the operational phase. c. There may be possibilities for Clayton to increase the volume of business associated with travelers on routes 56 and 64/87. It is likely that the majority of these travelers are traveling a long distance, connecting between I-40 (east-west) and I-25 (north south). The gross receipts data suggests indicates that the demand for gasoline and related services in Clayton is very strong (pull factor 519%, base 100%); accommodations are somewhat weaker but still very strong (342%); and food and drinking establishments are likewise strong and still weaker (200%). This data suggests that opportunities exist to strengthen hospitality and related amenity services. d. Beyond those associated with the development of the prison, opportunities to strengthen retail and service sectors that provide for local and regional markets are limited. As discussed, retail and service leakages are modest, and are largely related to the demand for higher-value (furniture, automotive, advanced medical or technical services) or bundled goods & services that cannot be feasibly provided in small market such as Clayton and Union County. For these goods and services, shoppers from Clayton are likely to continue to travel to Wal-Mart in Dumas or Trinidad, or to a larger metropolitan area such as Amarillo or Albuquerque. By the same UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   5

[close]

p. 8

token, the data suggests that Clayton has been reasonably successful in attracting customers from its immediate region. Any efforts to further strengthen these businesses should be cautious and incremental, involving the diversification or expansion of existing businesses. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   6

[close]

p. 9

3.2 EXPLANATION OF TABLES Selected Demographic, Economic and Housing Characteristics Source: US Census Bureau, 1990 & 2000 Decennial Census. Data is provided for your community, county and the State of New Mexico for the years 1990 and 2000. For the city and county values are given in absolute terms and in percentages. For the State of New Mexico, only percentages are provided, for the purposes of comparison. Taxable Gross Receipts and Pull Factors Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department; calculations by UNM/BBER. Data is provided for the years 1989 and 2002. Using two years of data allows for historical comparison (comparative static analysis). The years 1989 and 2002 are used to ensure comparability -- beginning in 2003, accounting methods used by NMTRD were changed, resulting initially in significant problems of reliability and later in discrepancies in comparability. Gross Receipts data is problematic and should be considered only as a general indicator. • The data does not specifically account for the value of the products sold; rather data is categorized according to the type of business; i.e. sales of food from gasoline convenience stores are included in gasoline stations; groceries sold at Wal-Mart are included in Misc Retailers. Businesses are self-categorized, and sometimes inaccurate. Not all products are taxable as gross receipts in New Mexico; a notable example is gasoline. • • A ‘pull factor’ indicates the capacity of an industrial sector (including services, retail, and so on) to draw revenues into the local economy. A value of 100% is the break-even point – values greater than 100% indicate that the business sector is drawing revenues into the local economy (more money is spent in the economy by those whose income is earned outside the community and money is spent by locals outside the community), whereas values less than 100% indicate that the sector is leaking money to other communities. The Net Gain/Loss derives from the Pull Factors. It is calculated as the difference between actual gross receipts and the ‘expected value’ of gross receipts (i.e. that which would be associated with a pull factor of 100%. The values are in nominal terms, meaning that they are NOT adjusted for inflation. Change (1989-2002) indicates the changing performance of industry, adjusted for price inflation. The column TGR Real shows the change in Taxable Gross Receipts adjusted inflation; the value is in 2002 dollars. Similarly, Real Gain/Loss shows the improvement or deterioration of the industry, again adjusted for inflation and displayed in 2002 UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   7

[close]

p. 10

dollars. The Pull Factor column shows the percentage change in the Pull Factor, again adjusted for inflation. Note that it is natural that not all sectors will have a positive balance – every economy has its strengths and weaknesses. From a policy perspective, policies that reduce leakages and that exploit strengths are both valid. The decision is a practical one – should energies be spent plugging holes or exploiting existing strengths. Businesses by Industry, In MainStreet Service Area, 1995 and 2004 Source: NM Department of Labor, ES-202 (Covered Employment Statistics), 1995 and 2004; calculations by UNM/BBER. For Las Vegas, Raton and Gallup, tables are included that compare businesses located in the MS service with businesses located in other parts of the city. The columns labeled ‘MS’ refer to businesses and employment located within the boundaries of the MainStreet service area; the columns labeled ‘outside’ refer to businesses located within the city but outside the MS service area. The column ‘%’ is the share of all businesses or employment that is located in the MS area. Location Quotients Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF3) – Sample Data; calculations by UNM/BBER. A location quotient indicates the relative concentration of employment by industry, occupations and types of business ownership in a given community, county or region. The measures are relative to that of a ‘Base Geography’. A location quotient is calculated as the ratio of local employment in a given industry, occupation or ownership type to total employment, in relation to the same ratio for the Base Geography. Thus, a value of 1.00 indicates that employment for a given industry, occupation or type of business ownership compared to total employment in the economy is in exact proportion to that of the Base Geography. Values greater than 1.00 indicate that the industry, occupation or ownership is more than proportionate to that of the Base Geography; a value less than 1.00 indicates the opposite. NOTE: Charts of location quotients are scaled to a value of 0, where this base indicates that employment for a given industry is the same proportion as the base geography. This is done for presentational purposes. The location quotient can be used to indicate the structure or ‘role’ of a local economy within its larger geography. This applies equally to the role of a town’s economy within the county, region or state; a county’s economy within the State; or a region’s (multiple counties) economy within the State. As with Pull Factors, a location quotient helps to define the relative strengths and weaknesses of a local economy, measured in this case in terms of industrial, occupational and ownership structures. Again, as with Pull Factors, this information can lead to policies that aim to strengthen weaknesses or exploit strengths; the decision is again one of practicality and strategy rather than theory. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   8

[close]

p. 11

Market Area The market area analysis chart assigns communities to market areas according to proximity to lower-order goods – I.e. goods and services of lesser value that are purchased more frequently than higher order goods. In contrast to the first chart, the purpose of this chart is to assign communities in Northeastern New Mexico to regional centers that may or may not provide higher order goods and services associated with Wal-Mart stores. An application of this chart is to understand market relations among the four MainStreet communities in Northeastern New Mexico – Las Vegas, Raton, Springer and Clayton. Principal Consumer Clusters Source: ESRI, Community Tapestry. 2006. In generating principal consumer clusters, all U.S. communities, defined according to 5digit zip codes, are analyzed and sorted according to 60 attributes, including income, source of income, employment, home value, housing type, occupation, education, household composition, age, and other key determinants of consumer behavior. Communities with similar attributes are clustered into 65 segments, with share consumer characteristics. A community may be comprised of two, three or more segments. This technique, known as geo-demographic cluster analysis, is useful in describing consumer patterns in specific communities. Data sources include the 2000 Decennial Census, proprietary ESRI's 2005 demographic updates, the Acxiom InfoBase consumer database, the Mediamark Research Inc. national consumer survey, and other sources. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   9

[close]

p. 12

3.3 TABLES AND FIGURES UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   10

[close]

p. 13

CLAYTON: SUMMARY OF DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Clayton Population Total population Median Age (yrs) Average household size (persons) Race & Ethnicity White Black or African American American Indian and Alaska Native Hispanic or Latino (of any race) Speak English less than "very well" (5 yrs and older) Not a U.S. citizen Education Educational Attainment: Less than High School Educational Attainment: HS graduate; and some college Educational Attainment: Associate, Bachelor's, or graduate degree Housing Owner-occupied housing units Median value (dollars) Income Real per capita income (1999 dollars) Median household income (1999 dollars) Households with retirement income Poverty Families below poverty level Female head, no husband present, below poverty level Female head, no husband present, with children under 5 yrs, below Labor Unemployment rate Private wage and salary workers Government workers Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 1990 2,484 37.0 2.5 95.7% 0.1% 0.2% 43.7% 7.2% 2.8% 38.7% 47.6% 13.7% 52.7% $38,900 $14,224 $16,138 16.6% 9.4% 27.4% 100.0% 7.6% 60.3% 22.7% 16.4% 2000 2,524 39.7 2.3 75.4% 0.0% 1.1% 46.5% 9.7% 1.0% 20.6% 64.1% 15.2% 59.6% $49,100 $13,967 $25,600 14.6% 14.2% 52.5% 72.7% 2.3% 61.3% 25.9% 12.0% NM 2000 1,819,046 34.6 2.63 44.7% 1.6% 8.9% 42.1% 11.9% 5.4% 21.1% 49.5% 29.4% 60.8% $108,100 $17,261 $34,133 17.4% 14.5% 34.1% 58.4% 3.3% 66.4% 22.7% 11.7% Source: US Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census.    11 UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis  

[close]

p. 14

CLAYTON: SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Clayton SELECTED SOCIAL & DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Population Total population Median Age (yrs) Under 5 yrs 18 yrs and over 65 yrs and over Average household size Race & Ethnicity White Black or African American American Indian and Alaska Native Hispanic or Latino (of any race) Speak Spanish at home; English less than "very well" (5 yrs+) Speak other than English or Spanish at home; English less than "very well" Not a U.S. citizen Education Educational Attainment: Less than High School Educational Attainment: HS graduate; and some college Educational Attainment: Associate, Bachelor's, or graduate degree Mobility Moved to new house since 1985/1995 (5 yrs and over) New to County since 1985/1995 (5 yrs and over) HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Total housing units Occupied: Owner-occupied housing units Occupied: Renter-occupied housing units Vacant housing units Median value (dollars) Median costs of homeownership, with a mortgage ($) Median costs of homeownership, with mortgage, as % of household 1990 2000 NM 2000 2,484 37.0 174 1,786 515 2.5 2,378 2 6 1,085 180 0 70 633 779 225 1,015 403 1,316 694 263 346 38,900 $487 21.9% 95.7% 0.1% 0.2% 43.7% 7.2% 0.0% 2.8% 38.7% 47.6% 13.7% 45.0% 17.9% 7.0% 71.9% 20.7% 2,524 39.7 142 1,826 473 2.3 1,902 0 27 1,173 233 0 25 350 1,087 258 974 470 1,289 768 311 210 $49,100 $586 19.9% 75.4% 0.0% 1.1% 46.5% 9.7% 0.0% 1.0% 20.6% 64.1% 15.2% 40.5% 19.5% 5.6% 72.3% 18.7% 1,819,046 7.1% 72.1% 11.7% 2.63 44.7% 1.6% 8.9% 42.1% 9.4% 2.5% 5.4% 21.1% 49.5% 29.4% 45.6% 19.6% 780,579 60.8% 26.1% 13.1% $108,100 $929 22.2% 52.7% 20.0% 26.3% 59.6% 24.1% 16.3% Source: US Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   12

[close]

p. 15

CLAYTON: SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Clayton ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Real per capita income (1999 dollars) Median household income in 1989/1999 (dollars) Households with earnings Households with Social Security income Households with public assistance income Households with retirement income Poverty Families below poverty level Families with children under 18 yrs below poverty level Families with children under 5 yrs below poverty level Female head, no husband present, below poverty level Female head, no husband present, with children under 5 yrs, below Female head, no husband present, with children under 18 yrs, below Individuals below poverty level LABOR CHARACTERISTICS Labor force (with % of population 16 yrs and over) Unemployed Class of Worker Private wage and salary workers Government workers Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business Unpaid family workers 1990 2000 NM 2000 $14,224 $16,138 717 395 115 166 66 40 13 32 17 9 596 932 71 563 212 153 6 71.6% 39.5% 11.5% 16.6% 9.4% 41.7% 26.0% 27.4% 100.0% 100.0% 24.6% 34.5% 7.6% 60.3% 22.7% 16.4% 0.6% $13,967 $25,600 803 363 51 160 100 12 7 62 8 7 451 1,179 27 702 297 137 10 73.3% 33.1% 4.7% 14.6% 14.2% 19.0% 9.9% 52.5% 72.7% 58.3% 17.8% 60.8% 2.3% 61.3% 25.9% 12.0% 0.9% $17,261 $34,133 79.5% 25.5% 4.7% 17.4% 14.5% 29.7% 22.4% 34.1% 58.4% 49.5% 18.1% 61.8% 3.3% 66.4% 22.7% 11.7% 0.4% Source: US Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census.    UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Analysis   13

[close]

Comments

no comments yet