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the consultative group on international agricultural research cgiar is a strategic partnership of countries international and regional organizations and private foundations supporting the work of 15 international agricultural research centres and currently five challenge programs in collaboration with national agricultural research systems civil society and the private sector the cgiar strives to foster sustainable agricultural growth through high-quality science aimed at benefiting the poor through stronger food security better human nutrition and health higher incomes and improved management of natural resources the alliance of the cgiar centers is a coalition created by the 15 international centres in 2006 to enhance collective action among the centres and between the centres and their partners this report was commissioned by the alliance of the cgiar centers and developed in collaboration between the alliance and the challenge program on climate change agriculture and food security ccafs ccafs is a new 10-year research initiative launched by the cgiar and the earth system science partnership essp ccafs seeks to overcome the threats to agriculture and food security in a changing climate exploring new ways of helping vulnerable rural communities adjust to global changes in climate the report was funded by the danish international development agency danida www.cgiar.org www.essp.org www.ccafs.cgiar.org written by anne moorhead and designed by christel chater of green ink www.greenink.co.uk photo front cover arne hoel[close]
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© 2009 alliance of the cgiar centers the alliance of the cgiar centers encourages fair use of this material material can be reproduced for non-commercial purposes provided acknowledgement is given to the alliance of the cgiar centers.[close]
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foreword the spectre of climate change has been with us for a long time as early as 1896 the swedish chemist and nobel prize winner svante arrhenius published a paper discussing the role of carbon dioxide in the regulation of the global temperature and calculated that a doubling of co2 in the atmosphere would trigger a rise of about 56oc in more recent years we have moved to a better understanding of what this means for our planet and its people and we have developed some plausible approaches to tackling the problem however we have yet to implement most of them over the past few years the temperature has been rising in many senses within 12 months in 20062007 the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc s 4th assessment report and the stern review were published and al gore s oscar-winning an inconvenient truth reached cinemas all over the world the scientific assessments economic analysis and public outreach have raised public debate and political discussion to great heights especially in the developed world perversely however it will be the poorest in developing countries that will be the hardest hit the menace of global climate change has brought hundreds of millions of rural people in the developing world to a crossroads it is clear in which direction they need and want to go from debilitating risk to heightened resilience in the face of an ominous threat to their well-being and it is equally clear that urgent steps are needed to help them to move in that direction much of the interest so far in relation to climate change and agriculture has been on mitigation but the focus is changing towards adaptation since we know that some global warming is unavoidable agriculture and forestry are central to the debate since the sectors contribute about one-third of the global warming potential but are also very sensitive to a changing climate in addition food security is again high on the political agenda with about 1 billion people going to bed hungry every night the consultative group on international agricultural research cgiar established in 1971 is a strategic partnership of countries international and regional organizations and private foundations supporting the work of international agricultural research centres and challenge programs in collaboration with national agricultural research systems civil society and the private sector the cgiar strives to foster sustainable agricultural growth through high-quality science aimed at benefiting the poor through stronger food security better human nutrition and health higher incomes and improved management of natural resources climate has been central to much of the work of the cgiar centres variable and uncertain weather being one of the greatest challenges to small-scale farmers and other resource managers new technologies and knowledge resulting from this work include hardier crops and better ways to manage trees livestock water soil and fish thus the centres and other challenge programs have already contributed insights into the role of agriculture forestry and fisheries in addressing both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change climate change adds to the urgency of such work and reinforces its importance the cgiar challenge program on climate change agriculture and food security ccafs iii[close]
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climate agriculture and food security a strategy for change is a new drive to help deal with an escalating problem developed by the alliance of cgiar centers and the earth system science partnership essp it aims to ensure that we can sustainably produce sufficient food fodder and fibre for a growing global population under a changing climate ccafs will bring together the best brains in development research agricultural research and climate science to help bring lasting solutions to the food security challenges under a changing climate to highlight the importance of agriculture livestock forestry and fisheries in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation and to demonstrate the importance of the cgiar in moving the science agenda forward the alliance of the cgiar centers commissioned this report the report is organized around the six themes of the ccafs science plan to emphasize the importance of this new strategic initiative and to show how this new challenge program builds on and complements the work already done by the centres and the other challenge programs this report will be an important input to the agriculture and rural development day and to the forest day held in copenhagen in conjunction with the united nations climate negotiations in december 2009 with a focus on the road after copenhagen priority strategies and actions for ensuring food security and rural development in the face of climate change the agriculture and rural development day will bring together policy makers and negotiators rural development practitioners producers civil society and the agricultural and climate change scientific community to highlight the importance of agriculture in climate change and to identify the `no-regret priorities for agriculture and food security where the world needs to take action the event will develop a workplan with strategies and actions to fully incorporate agriculture into the post-copenhagen agenda the report was written by anne moorhead of green ink based on inputs provided by contact points at the cgiar centres and challenge programs we acknowledge the skills of anne in writing the report and summarizing the current and planned work in a way that clearly demonstrates the important role of the cgiar in the follow-up to the cop-15 negotiations in copenhagen we are also grateful to the contact points for providing inputs to the writing and commenting on drafts the report was made possible through generous financial support from danida the danish international development agency and this is gratefully acknowledged there is no time to lose in transforming knowledge into action but the knowledge of today is not enough science must advance quickly toward new frontiers in search of greater understanding and more powerful solutions we hope that this report will inform and stimulate discussions in copenhagen during cop-15 and beyond the cgiar centres their partners and the international science community will continue to provide the solid basis of scientific understanding to assist policy makers as well as the public and private sectors in developing strategies for sustainable development and food security under climate change agriculture in its widest sense will be affected by a changing climate but is also part of the solution stephen hall chair alliance executive thomas rosswall chair steering committee climate change agriculture and food security challenge program iv[close]
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contents introduction climate change and agriculture a critical juncture a framework for action understanding the problem targeting the solutions the policy challenge rethinking engagement and communications 1 4 7 9 9 12 14 strategies for change adapting now adapting into the future mitigation pro-poor sustainable and essential 18 18 21 40 conclusion 45 v[close]
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climate agriculture and food security a strategy for change deinitions and explanations adaptive strategies longer term beyond a single season strategies that are needed for people to respond to a new set of evolving conditions biophysical social and economic that they have not previously experienced system the changes that are occurring to the system and the implications of these changes for global sustainability the essp comprises four international global environmental change research programmes diversitas specializing in biodiversity and agrobiodiversity the international human dimensions programme on global environmental change ihdp specializing in institutional socioeconomic and human security issues related to global environmental change and the policies to address it the international geosphere biosphere programme igbp specializing in the physical chemical and biological processes that define earth system dynamics and the world climate research programme wcrp specializing in climate science challenge program a cgiar challenge program is a time-bound independently governed programme of highimpact research that targets the cgiar goals in relation to complex issues of overwhelming global and/or regional significance and requires partnerships among a wide range of institutions in order to deliver its products climate the statistical description in terms of means and variability of key weather parameters for a given area over a period of time usually at least 30 years food systems food systems encompass activities related to production processing distribution preparation and consumption of food and the outcomes of these activities that contribute to food security such as food availability food access including affordability allocation and preferences and food use including nutritional value social value and food safety climate change any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity coping strategies strategies that have evolved over time through peoples long experience in dealing with the known and understood natural variation that they expect in seasons combined with their specific responses to the season as it unfolds food security food security is the state achieved when food systems operate such that all people at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life fao earth system science partnership essp the essp was established in 2001 to promote cooperation for the integrated study of the earth vi[close]
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the climate is changing and agricultural systems must also change if we are to avoid catastrophe introduction agriculture on which we all depend for our food is under threat from climate change there is no doubt that systems worldwide will have to adapt but while consumers may barely notice in developed countries millions of people in developing countries face a very real and direct threat to their food security and livelihoods even without climate change many agricultural systems in developing countries are nearing crisis point feeding a rapidly rising global population is taking a heavy toll on farmlands rangelands fisheries and forests water is becoming scarce in many regions climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge we know that climate change will mean higher average temperatures changing rainfall patterns and rising sea levels there will be more and more intense extreme events such as droughts floods and hurricanes although there is a lot of uncertainty about the location and magnitude of these changes there is no doubt that they pose a major threat to agricultural systems developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are closely linked to agriculture and a large proportion of their populations depend directly on agriculture and natural ecosystems for their livelihoods thus climate change has the potential to act as a `risk multiplier in some of the poorest parts of the world where agricultural and other natural resource-based systems are already failing to keep pace with the demands on them the contribution of agriculture itself to climate change is often overlooked current practices including the conversion of forests and grasslands for crops and pasture result in significant releases of greenhouse gases the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc estimated that 31 of total emissions in 2004 came from agriculture and forestry this clearly needs to be addressed in mitigation strategies the climate is changing and agricultural systems must also change if we are to avoid catastrophe farming fishing and forest communities will need to adapt their livelihood systems while mitigation efforts must address both the contribution of agriculture to the climate change problem and the great potential of different resource management practices in reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the changes that are needed will be many and diverse they will happen at the local level tailored to local circumstances and ecosystems and chosen and managed by the communities agriculture is under threat from climate change neil palmer/ciat 1[close]
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climate agriculture and food security a strategy for change bioversity ifpri cimmyt icrisat ciat cip iita africa rice iwmi world agroforestry ilri worldfish cifor irri icarda centres regional offices of centres locations of the cgiar centers and their regional offices the five challenge programs climate change agriculture and food security generation harvestplus sub-saharan africa and water and food also operate across diverse locations too many to include on the map themselves they should have immediate benefits for the communities as well as long-term benefits that future generations will enjoy they must be based on sound science and enabled by effective policy at all levels they will build on the wealth of knowledge that already exists and the new directions that research must now take to meet this enormous challenge the wealth of knowledge that already exists includes the results of more than three decades of research under the consultative group on international agricultural research cgiar the 15 research centres supported by the cgiar and their many partners have been working over this period to help poor farming fishing and forest communities achieve sustainable livelihoods in the face of variable and uncertain weather the accumu lated experience and expertise can be applied to address the additional threat posed by a changing climate indeed climate change provides a massive and urgent incentive to intensify efforts to disseminate the fruits of this research and to continue developing adaptation and mitigation options at least in the near years the benefits of adopting many of the existing technologies such as improved crop soil and water management practices and stress-tolerant varieties could be sufficient to override the negative impacts of climate change and the immediate benefits in terms of improved food security livelihoods and environmental security make this a `no regrets approach these changes are worthwhile whatever happens to the climate at the same time it is logical that 2[close]
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introduction climate change has the potential to act as a `risk multiplier in some of the poorest parts of the world stevie mann/ilri learning to cope with weather variability today paves the way for adapting to climate change tomorrow but climate change also promises new and unprecedented challenges and demands new and urgent efforts to meet these we need to take rapid strides forward in understanding what is going to happen to our farming fishery and forest systems as the climate changes the interactions that will occur with other global changes that are also under way and within this complex and dynamic situation the trade-offs we may face between food security livelihoods and environmental security we need to develop new and inventive responses to what is likely to be the most complex challenge that the world s food production systems have ever faced to do this we need new ways of working new non-traditional partnerships and truly integrated approaches and we need much better communications between all stakeholders so that decision making at all levels is based on the best knowledge available these needs provide the drive behind a new initiative led by the alliance of the cgiar centers and the earth system science partnership essp the challenge program on climate change agriculture and food security ccafs which will launch in early 2010 unites the world s best researchers in agricultural science climate science and earth system science to address the climate changefood security problem the transformative research programme provides a framework for these communities to work together and by doing so to go beyond their traditional boundaries and open up new and unique possibilities in the search for solutions 3[close]
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climate agriculture and food security a strategy for change we can isolate some critical challenges that agriculture will face as the climate changes climate change and agriculture there is a great deal of uncertainty about climate change but there are some certainties average global temperatures are rising and will continue to rise over the coming decades whatever mitigation measures are taken because of stocks of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere these rising temperatures are already having measureable impacts on glaciers and ice caps sea levels and rainfall patterns and these impacts will also increase over the next decades the ultimate temperature rise will depend on mitigation measures put in place to limit emissions over the coming years at this point in time average temperatures are 0.7°c above pre-industrial levels scenarios published by ipcc predict temperature rises of up to 4.5°c or higher by 2080 depending on a range of factors and pathways that human development may take many believe that a rise of 2°c is the threshold beyond which impacts are likely to be severe and dangerous to environmental systems mitigation measures are obviously critical to contain the damage and changing agricultural and land use practices have a major role to play forestry for example accounted for some 17 of greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 according to ipcc but if deforestation can be halted reforestation initiated and existing forests managed more sustainably by communities forests could become part of the solution instead of part of the problem soils can be better managed to store carbon while agroforestry is also an underutilized mitigation option biofuels are a complex issue at the moment they have potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels but their production has its own environmental costs and may compete with that of food and feed research into biofuel development should clarify the issues and allow production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable way that also benefits the poor these and other promising mitigation options linked to agriculture land use and natural resources management are explored further below the results of mitigation efforts in terms of reduced emissions and retained carbon and corresponding slowing of temperature rise will not be evident for decades but many of the options that relate to developing country agriculture and natural resources management will have immediate development benefits beyond `no regrets these are winwin opportunities that the world should not miss whatever mitigation efforts are made climate change is already happening and temperatures will continue to rise during the coming years it is not known exactly what will happen where but the impacts we are beginning to see will intensify these changes will happen at the same time as and will interact with the impacts of other global trends such as population growth urbanization increasing demands for water over-exploitation of ecosystems and shifts in world economics if we are to understand real-life impacts and develop meaningful responses we must look at climate change and agriculture within this global system the challenge is dynamic and multifactorial the responses the adaptation options that will allow people to manage this challenge will have to match 4[close]
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climate change and agriculture forestry accounts for around 17 of greenhouse gas emissions cifor we can isolate some critical challenges that agriculture will face as the climate changes many of these are amplifications of the substantial challenges that the current climate already imposes water availability is at the top of the list already scarce in many regions increasing demand and competition for water will combine with changing and less predictable rainfall and river flows in asia changes in the monsoon rains and in glacier and snow melt are probably the greatest threats in africa where so many people rely directly on the rain for their food and livelihoods any changes to rainfall present a major risk indeed the ipcc s fourth assessment report suggests that some african countries may see yields from rainfed agriculture fall by as much as 50 by 2020 if production practices remain unchanged water quality is also at stake saline water will increasingly affect agricultural systems due to seawater intrusion over-exploited aquifers and unsustainable irrigation practices higher temperatures will challenge many agricultural systems plants are sensitive to high temperatures during critical stages such as flowering and seed development often combined with drought high temperatures can mean disaster to farmers fields raised 5[close]
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climate agriculture and food security a strategy for change the costs of climate change a recent study by the international food policy research institute ifpri titled `climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation highlighted some of the anticipated costs of climate change 25 million more children will be malnourished in 2050 due to climate change without serious mitigation efforts or adaptation expenditures irrigated wheat yields in 2050 will be reduced by around 30 and irrigated rice yields by 15 in developing countries climate change will increase prices in 2050 by 90 for wheat 12 for rice and 35 for maize on top of already higher prices at least us$7 billion a year are necessary to improve agricultural productivity to prevent adverse effects on children carbon dioxide levels also have implications for crop plants although impacts are complex and need further research fishing communities are equally vulnerable water temperatures and acidity will change as well as sea levels upwellings and ocean currents impacts on marine ecosystems particularly coral reefs could be devastating while aquaculture will be challenged by increasing temperatures and extreme events and marine aquaculture also by environmental hazards such as harmful algal blooms many pests and diseases of crops animals and humans are sensitive to climate and we can expect these to change in currently unpredictable ways some will become prevalent in areas where they were previously unknown when the climate becomes favourable in those areas the danger is that there is usually low immunity to a disease and poor knowledge of pest or disease management in areas where they have not occurred before natural ecosystems are equally at risk from climate change the natural environment is not static and ecosystems have evolved and adapted to gradually changing environmental conditions throughout history a fundamental challenge of climate change is its rapid pace and plants and animals that cannot quickly adapt to new conditions or relocate to new areas will become extinct as well as destabilizing vital ecosystems this also erodes the genetic base for future crops and livestock the impacts of climate change will not be felt evenly across the world and may not all be negative some agricultural systems mainly at higher latitudes and higher altitudes may benefit at least in the short term from higher temperatures some dry areas may get more rainfall but the most vulnerable the many millions of people who survive by rainfed agriculture in the drylands of africa the millions more who make up the world s small-scale fishing communities and those who make their livelihoods in low-lying regions like the indo-gangetic plains for example look likely to face some of the most severe impacts which will probably overwhelm their current coping capacities 6[close]
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climate change threatens agriculture yet it also brings an opportunity one which the world cannot afford to miss a critical juncture climate change threatens agriculture yet it also brings an opportunity one which the world cannot afford to miss the products of international agricultural research have great potential for much wider adoption than has been achieved so far and their adoption will build the resilience of millions of people to weather variability and uncertainty today and to future climate change some will also contribute to mitigation of climate change drought heat salt and flood-tolerant crop varieties new ways to irrigate crops and better ways to manage soils are just some of the technologies that hold great promise to help farmers today and into the future livestock keepers can choose adapted breeds and alternative feeds that do not depend on crops among many other options to reduce their vulnerability there are many innovations to improve the sustainability of fisheries forests and water supplies some of these are described in more detail in the following sections bringing the products of more than three decades of research into use and quickly will be a tremendous challenge it will depend on we are at a critical juncture for agriculture icrisat 7[close]
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