p. 1

united states government accountability office gao march 2010 report to congressional committees defense acquisitions assessments of selected weapon programs gao-10-388sp a

[close]

p. 2

march 2010 defense acquisitions highlights highlights of gao-10-388sp a report to congressional committees accountability integrity reliability assessments of selected weapon programs why gao did this study this is gao s eighth annual assessment of selected department of defense dod weapon programs the report examines how well dod is planning and executing its weapon acquisition programs an area that has been on gao s high-risk list since 1990 this year s report is in response to the mandate in the joint explanatory statement to the dod appropriations act 2009 the report includes 1 observations on dod s efforts to manage its portfolio of major defense acquisition programs 2 an assessment of the knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for a subset of 42 weapon programs from the 2009 portfolio 3 data on other factors that can affect program execution and 4 examples of how dod is implementing recent acquisition reforms to conduct the assessment gao analyzed data on the composition of dod s portfolio of major defense acquisition programs gao did not analyze the cost and schedule performance of the portfolio because dod did not issue timely or complete selected acquisition reports for the second consecutive presidential transition gao expects to resume its portfolio analysis in next year s assessment gao also collected data from program offices on technology design and manufacturing knowledge as well as on other factors that can affect program execution gao analyzed this data and compiled one or twopage assessments of 70 weapon programs view gao-10-388sp or key components for more information contact michael j sullivan at 202 512-4841 or sullivanm@gao.gov what gao found in 2009 the secretary of defense proposed canceling or significantly curtailing weapon programs with a projected cost of at least $126 billion congress supported several of the recommended terminations dod plans to develop new options to replace several of the canceled programs the most significant of these will be the effort to restructure the army s terminated future combat system program at the same time dod s 2009 portfolio of major defense acquisition programs grew to 102 programs a net increase of 6 since last year dod did not issue complete selected acquisition reports for these programs in 2009 which precluded an analysis of the overall cost and schedule performance of dod s portfolio in this year s assessment secretary of defense s fiscal year 2010 budget recommendations weapon system secretary s comments vh-71 presidential helicopter plan to develop options for a new recommended program termination combat search and rescue plan to reexamine requirements helicopter next-generation bomber will not initiate new development program without better understanding of the requirement and technology future combat systems­ plan to reevaluate requirements manned ground vehicles technology and approach before relaunching and recompeting program transformational satellite plan to buy two more aehf satellites as alternative ballistic missile defense­ plan to reexamine requirements no multiple kill vehicle mention of new program c-17 recommended ending production at recommended end 205 aircraft of production ddg-1000 recommended ending production at 3 ships f-22 recommended ending production at 187 aircraft source gao analysis of dod data for 42 programs gao assessed in depth there has been continued improvement in the technology design and manufacturing knowledge programs had at key points in the acquisition process however most programs are still proceeding with less knowledge than best practices suggest putting them at higher risk for cost growth and schedule delays a majority of programs have also experienced requirements changes software development challenges or workforce issues or a combination which can affect program stability and execution dod has begun to implement a revised acquisition policy that addresses many of these areas for example seven programs we examined in technology development plan to test competitive prototypes before starting system development and nine programs plan to hold early systems engineering reviews if dod consistently applies this policy the number of programs adhering to a knowledge-based acquisition should increase and the outcomes for dod programs should improve united states government accountability office

[close]

p. 3

contents foreword letter observations on dod s 2009 major defense acquisition program portfolio observations from our assessment of knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process observations on other factors that can affect program execution observations about dod s implementation of acquisition reforms how to read the knowledge graphic for each program assessed assessments of individual programs advanced extremely high frequency aehf satellites agm-88e advanced anti-radiation guided missile aargm airborne signals intelligence payload baseline b-2 spirit advanced extremely high frequency ehf satcom capability increment 1 bmds airborne laser abl bmds aegis ballistic missile defense bmds flexible target family bmds ground-based midcourse defense gmd bmds terminal high altitude area defense thaad broad area maritime surveillance unmanned aircraft system c-130 avionics modernization program c-5 reliability enhancement and reengining program c-5 rerp ch-53k heavy lift replacement hlr cvn 21 nuclear aircraft class carrier ddg 1000 destroyer e-2d advanced hawkeye e-2d ahe ea-18g growler expeditionary fighting vehicle efv extended range/multiple purpose unmanned aircraft system er/mp excalibur precision guided extended range artillery projectile family of advanced beyond line-of-sight terminals fab-t future combat system spin out early-infantry brigade combat team global hawk unmanned aircraft system 1 3 5 9 19 22 24 26 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 page i gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 4

contents h-1 upgrades 4bw/4bn joint air-to-surface standoff missile jassm joint high speed vessel jhsv joint land attack cruise missile defense elevated netted sensor system jlens joint precision approach and landing system joint strike fighter joint tactical radio system airborne maritime fixed-station jtrs amf joint tactical radio system ground mobile radio jtrs gmr jtrs handheld manpack small form fit jtrs hms joint tactical radio system network enterprise domain mutifunctional information distribution system-joint tactical radio system mids-jtrs littoral combat ship lcs littoral combat ship mission modules lha 6 amphibious assault ship replacement program longbow apache block iii maritime prepositioning force future mobile landing platform mq-9 reaper unmanned aircraft system mine resistant ambush protected mrap vehicle mobile user objective system muos navstar global positioning system gps space control navstar global positioning system gps iiia navy multiband terminal nmt program national polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system npoess p-8a poseidon p-8a patriot meads combined aggregate program cap fire unit space based infrared system sbirs high space-based space surveillance block 10 small diameter bomb sdb increment ii standard missile-6 extended range active missile v-22 joint services advanced vertical lift aircraft virginia-class submarine ssn 774 vertical take-off and landing tactical unmanned aerial vehicle vtuav warfighter information network-tactical increment 2 warfighter information network-tactical increment 3 air and missile defense radar amdr b-2 spirit advanced extremely high frequency ehf satcom capability increment 2 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119 121 123 125 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 141 142 page ii gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 5

contents bmds space tracking and surveillance system stss c-27j common infrared countermeasures circm f-22a raptor future combat system fcs joint air-to-ground missile joint light tactical vehicle jltv kiowa warrior kw next generation gps control segment ocx ohio-class replacement/sea based strategic deterrent sbsd third generation infrared surveillance 3girs agency comments and our evaluation 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 appendixes appendix i appendix ii appendix iii appendix iv scope and methodology comments from the department of defense technology readiness levels gao contact and acknowledgments 156 165 167 169 173 table 1 secretary of defense s fiscal year 2010 budget recommendations table 2 programs testing an early system prototype table 3 program office composition for 50 dod programs figure 1 percentage of technologies that were mature and nearing maturity when selected programs entered system development figure 2 average percent of total expected design drawings for selected programs that are releasable at critical design review figure 3 programs testing production-representative prototype before and after a production decision figure 4 depiction of notional weapon system knowledge as compared with best practices related gao products tables 6 15 20 figures 12 14 17 25 page iii gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 6

contents abbreviations b-2 ehf satcom b-2 spirit advanced extremely high frequency satcom bmds ballistic missile defense system cdr critical design review dod department of defense fcs future combat system fy fiscal year gps global positioning systems lrip low-rate initial production mda missile defense agency mdap major defense acquisition program mrap mine resistant ambush protected vehicle na not applicable pdr preliminary design review rdt&e research development test and evaluation sar selected acquisition report trl technology readiness level this is a work of the u.s government and is not subject to copyright protection in the united states the published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from gao however because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately page iv gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 7

a comptroller general of the united states united states government accountability office washington d.c 20548 march 30 2010 congressional committees i am pleased to present gao s eighth annual assessment of selected weapon programs the report provides a snapshot of how well the department of defense dod is planning and executing its major defense acquisition programs an area that has been on gao s high-risk list since its inception in 1990 the past 15 months have seen dod and congress take meaningful steps towards addressing long-standing weapon acquisition issues many of these actions are consistent with our past recommendations dod made major revisions to its acquisition policies to place more emphasis on acquiring knowledge about requirements technology and design before programs start thus putting it in a better position to field capabilities on time and at the estimated cost congress strengthened dod s acquisition policies and processes by passing the weapon system acquisition reform act of 2009 which includes provisions to ensure programs are based on realistic cost estimates and to terminate programs that experience high levels of cost growth the secretary of defense proposed a fiscal year 2010 budget that ended or curtailed all or part of at least a half dozen major defense acquisition programs such as the air force s f-22a raptor the army s future combat system the navy s ddg 1000 destroyer and the missile defense agency s multiple kill vehicle that were over cost behind schedule or no longer suited to meet the warfighters current needs congress s support for several of the recommended terminations signaled a willingness to make difficult choices on individual weapon systems and dod s major defense acquisition program portfolio as a whole le er t while dod s acquisition policies and process may be improving fiscal pressures continue to build notwithstanding the federal government s long-term fiscal challenges the pentagon faces its own near-term and longterm fiscal pressures as it attempts to balance competing demands including ongoing operations in afghanistan and iraq initiatives to grow and modernize the force and increasing personnel and health care costs while dod s fiscal year 2010 budget request started the process of reprioritizing acquisition dollars to meet warfighters most pressing needs the department must still address the overall affordability of its weapon system investments our report this year indicates the number of major defense acquisition programs has grown in the past year from 96 to 102 although dod s efforts to reprioritize its acquisition investments are still ongoing dod should continue to work to balance its weapon system page 1 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 8

portfolio with available funding which includes reducing the number or size of weapon system programs or both and assessing the affordability of new programs and capabilities in the context of overall defense spending we believe that this report can provide insights that will help dod place programs in a better position to succeed and help the department maximize its investments one of the surest ways that dod can ensure it delivers the promised return on investment for its weapon system spending is to execute programs using a knowledge-based acquisition approach our review this year found continued improvement in the knowledge dod officials had about programs technologies designs and manufacturing processes at key points in the acquisition process however most programs are still proceeding with less knowledge than best practices suggest putting them at higher risk for cost growth and schedule delays if dod consistently applies its revised acquisition policy we expect to see the number of programs adhering to a knowledge-based acquisition increase and at the same time the outcomes for those programs improve these policies must also be reinforced by dod and congress in their decisions on whether or not to fund individual programs our report this year does not include an analysis of the performance of dod s major defense acquisition program portfolio in recent years this analysis showed that the cumulative cost growth on dod programs had reached $300 billion in fiscal year 2010 dollars dod did not issue timely or complete selected acquisition reports for its major defense acquisition programs in fiscal year 2009 for the second consecutive presidential transition which precluded an analysis of the overall cost and schedule performance of dod s portfolio gao expects to resume its portfolio analysis in next year s assessment gene l dodaro acting comptroller general of the united states page 2 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 9

a united states government accountability office washington d.c 20548 march 30 2010 congressional committees this is gao s eighth annual assessment of selected department of defense dod weapon programs and the second in response to the mandate in the joint explanatory statement to the dod appropriations act 2009.1 this report provides a snapshot of how well dod is planning and executing its weapon programs an area that has been on gao s high-risk list since 1990 since last year s report the executive and legislative branches have taken actions that altered the direction of individual major defense acquisition programs as well as the way dod must manage these acquisitions in dod s fiscal year 2010 budget request the secretary of defense proposed ending all or part of at least a half dozen major defense acquisition programs that were over cost behind schedule or no longer suited to meet the warfighters current needs congress enacted the weapon system acquisition reform act of 2009,2 which built on previous congressional actions our past recommendations and dod policy changes designed to put weapon programs on solid footing before they begin and maintain discipline throughout the acquisition process this report includes 1 observations on dod s efforts to manage its portfolio of major defense acquisition programs 2 our assessment of the knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for a subset of 42 weapon programs primarily in development or the early stages of production from the 2009 portfolio 3 data on other factors that can affect program execution and 4 examples of how dod is implementing its revised acquisition policy for major defense acquisition program to conduct our assessment of dod s management of its major defense acquisition program portfolio we collected and analyzed data on the le er t see explanatory statement 154 cong rec h 9427 9526 daily ed sept 24 2008 to the department of defense appropriations act fiscal year 2009 contained in division c of the consolidated security disaster assistance and continuing appropriations act 2009 pub l no 110-329 2 1 pub l no 111-23 page 3 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 10

composition of dod s portfolio in 2009.3 our ability to analyze the cost and schedule performance of the 2009 portfolio was limited this year because dod did not prepare selected acquisition reports that reflected the secretary of defense s proposed changes to weapon programs in the fiscal year 2010 budget instead we made observations on programs entering and exiting dod s portfolio of major defense acquisition programs using dod budget documentation fiscal year 2010 authorization and appropriation acts december 2007 selected acquisition reports dod s list of major defense acquisition programs and other program data to conduct our assessments of individual programs we obtained information on the extent to which they followed knowledge-based practices for technology maturity design stability and production maturity from a data collection instrument provided to each program office we also collected information from program offices on other aspects of program management including systems engineering requirements changes software development and program office staffing overall we collected information on 70 weapon programs we chose these programs based on their estimated cost stage in the acquisition process and congressional interest our assessment of how well programs are adhering to a knowledge-based acquisition approach includes a subset of 42 major defense acquisition programs from dod s 2009 portfolio.4 we conducted this performance audit from august 2009 to march 2010 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives we believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings based on our audit 3 major defense acquisition programs are those identified by dod that require eventual total research development test and evaluation rdt&e expenditures including all planned increments of more than $365 million or procurement expenditures including all planned increments of more than $2.19 billion in fiscal year 2000 constant dollars 4 the 28 programs in our assessment that are not covered in this analysis include 10 pre­ major defense acquisition programs 6 missile defense agency elements 5 navy shipbuilding programs 3 components or subprograms within major defense acquisition programs 2 programs that are been terminated or are ending 1 major defense acquisition program that is based on a commercially-derived aircraft and 1 acquisition category ii program an acquisition category ii program is defined as a program that does not meet the criteria for an acquisition category i program and is estimated to require eventual total rdt&e expenditures of more than $140 million or procurement expenditures of more than $660 million in fiscal year 2000 constant dollars page 4 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 11

objectives appendix i contains detailed information on our scope and methodology observations on dod s 2009 major defense acquisition program portfolio we make four overall observations or points concerning dod s management of its major defense acquisition portfolio this year first in dod s fiscal year 2010 budget the secretary of defense proposed canceling or significantly curtailing programs with projected total costs of at least $126 billion that he characterized as too costly or no longer relevant for current operations while increasing funding for others that he assessed as higher priorities second dod plans to replace several of the canceled programs in fiscal years 2010 and 2011 hopefully with new knowledgebased acquisition strategies because the warfighter need remains the most significant of these new programs will be the effort to restructure the army s terminated future combat system program into several smaller integrated programs third dod s portfolio of major defense acquisition programs grew to 102 programs in 2009 a net increase of 6 since december 2007 eighteen programs with an estimated cost of over $72 billion entered the portfolio,5 while 12 programs with an estimated cost of $48 billion including over $7 billion in cost growth left the portfolio.6 when the future combat system is added to the programs leaving the portfolio the total cost of these programs increases to $179 billion including over $47 billion in cost growth finally our analysis of this year s portfolio was limited by the lack of timely selected acquisition reports that reflected the secretary of defense s proposed changes to the programs in the portfolio additional details about each of these four observations follow · the secretary of defense s fiscal year 2010 budget recommended the cancellation of several high-risk acquisition programs in april 2009 the secretary of defense recommended canceling or curtailing all or part of at least a half dozen major defense acquisition programs including the air force s combat search and rescue helicopter the army s future combat system the missile defense agency s multiple kill vehicle and the navy s vh-71 presidential 5 cost data were only available for 13 of the 18 newly designated major defense acquisition programs the estimated cost for these 12 programs is based on dod s december 2007 selected acquisition reports cost growth was calculated from the programs first cost estimate 6 page 5 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 12

helicopter replacement that were over cost behind schedule no longer suited to meet the warfighters current needs or based on a single service instead of a joint solution in announcing these changes the secretary estimated that the total cost of three of the programs recommended for cancellation exceeded $126 billion.7 table 1 provides a summary of some of the secretary of defense s recommendations in dod s fiscal year 2010 budget request table 1 secretary of defense s fiscal year 2010 budget recommendations total estimated cost dollars in billions $13 system recommended termination vh-71 presidential helicopter secretary s comments congressional action plan to develop options for a conferees recommended $100 new program million for technology capture that dod has budgeted for the vh-71 program plan to reexamine requirements did not authorize appropriations for the program combat search and rescue helicopter next-generation bomber unspecified unspecified supported development of a nextwill not initiate new generation bomber aircraft but did development program without better understanding not authorize appropriations of the requirement and technology plan to reevaluate requirements technology and approach before relaunching and recompeting program plan to buy two more aehf satellites as alternative directed army to develop test and field an operationally effective and affordable next-generation ground combat vehicle conferees recommended rescission of $26 million in existing funding did not authorize appropriations for the program future combat system­manned ground vehicles 87 transformational satellite ballistic missile defense­multiple kill vehicle 26 unspecified plan to reexamine did not authorize appropriations for requirements no mention of the program new program 7 data used to compute value of deletions and curtailments are based entirely on information provided by the secretary of defense when announcing budgetary recommendations as shown in table 1 dod did not specify a value to those programs that plan to end production page 6 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 13

continued from previous page system recommended end of production c-17 total estimated cost dollars in billions unspecified secretary s comments recommended ending production at 205 aircraft congressional action conferees recommended $2.5 billion for the procurement of 10 c-17 aircraft associated spares support equipment and training equipment did not fund additional ships appropriated $1.4 billion for completion of third ddg 1000 did not fund additional aircraft conferees recommended rescission of $383 million in existing funding ddg 1000 unspecified recommended ending production at 3 ships recommended ending production at 187 aircraft f-22 unspecified total $126 source gao analysis of secretary s april 2009 statement on fiscal year 2010 budget and fiscal year 2010 dod authorization and appropriations acts · dod is currently developing options for new programs to replace the future combat system and vh-71 presidential helicopter that will begin in fiscal year 2010 or 2011 while dod recommended canceling existing programs with high-risk acquisition strategies such as the manned ground vehicle portion of the future combat system and the vh-71 presidential helicopter the capability needs these systems were supposed to fill still exist in both cases dod is currently developing options for new programs that will begin in fiscal year 2010 or 2011 the army is planning the acquisition strategy to deliver residual capabilities from the future combat system program while its plans are still preliminary it has already made a decision to produce the first increment of equipment from the future combat system program begin development of follow-on equipment establish an approach to acquiring future increments of network capabilities and plan for the development of a new ground combat vehicle the navy is currently conducting early systems engineering activities including analyzing requirements and alternative approaches to meeting those requirements to support the start of a new presidential helicopter replacement program in both cases dod has an opportunity to develop lower-risk alternatives with requirements that are aligned with available technology and funding and better reflect warfighters current needs · dod s portfolio of major defense acquisition programs continues to grow between december 2007 and july 2009 dod s portfolio of page 7 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 14

major defense acquisition programs grew from 96 to 102 programs.8 overall 18 percent of the portfolio or 18 programs are newly designated major defense acquisition programs these programs have a total estimated cost of over $72 billion.9 cost data were only available for 13 of these programs not all of these programs entering the portfolio are new starts for instance the airborne signals intelligence payload the mq-9 reaper unmanned aircraft system the extended range multipurpose unmanned aircraft system and the predator unmanned aircraft system programs all began as acquisition category ii programs but their total research and development or procurement costs now exceed the threshold for major defense acquisition programs twelve programs with an estimated total cost of $48 billion as of december 2007 including over $7 billion in cost growth left the portfolio.10 these programs left the portfolio for a variety of reasons including program restructure termination or completion due to the methodology we used to identify the programs entering and exiting the portfolio our analysis did not include the future combat system program which is being significantly restructured as part of the secretary of defense s fiscal year 2010 budget recommendations as of december 2007 the estimated total acquisition cost of the future combat system program was over $131 billion fiscal year 2010 dollars which includes over $40 billion in cost growth fiscal year 2010 dollars since the start of development at the time of our review dod did not have a cost 8 we compared the number of major defense acquisition programs with selected acquisition reports in december 2007 to the number of programs on dod s june 2009 major defense acquisition program list 9 the programs that entered the portfolio between december 2007 and july 2009 include broad area maritime surveillance unmanned aerial system kc-x joint tactical radio system airborne maritime fixed-station joint high speed vessel global positioning system iiia c-27j extended range/multipurpose unmanned aircraft system reaper unmanned aircraft system global command support system­army joint precision aircraft landing system airborne signals intelligence payload navy large aircraft infrared countermeasures airborne warning and control system upgrade ea-6b integrated defensive electronic countermeasures joint and allied threat awareness system predator unmanned aerial system and win-t increment 3 10 the programs that left the portfolio between december 2007 and july 2009 include mission planning system increments i-iii armed reconnaissance helicopter cvn 68 nimitz class nuclear powered aircraft carrier extended range munition minuteman iii guidance replacement program minuteman iii propulsion replacement program vh-71 presidential helicopter replacement javelin ssgn-ohio class submarine conversion advanced deployable system an/wqr-3 ship self defense system program and t-45ts goshawk undergraduate jet pilot training system page 8 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]

p. 15

estimate for the new programs that will replace the future combat system · the lack of complete selected acquisition report data for 2009 precludes an analysis of the overall cost and schedule performance of dod s portfolio of major defense acquisition programs dod did not comply with statutory requirements when it did not issue selected acquisition reports within 60 days of its fiscal year 2010 budget submission on may 7 2009.11 dod prepared limited selected acquisition reports for 85 of 102 major defense acquisition programs by november 2009 6 months after the budget was submitted.12 the data in the limited selected acquisition reports were not complete program costs were not updated from december 2007 selected acquisition reports except to reflect changes in the funding received in fiscal year 2009 and funding requested in fiscal year 2010 according to dod the rest of the cost data on programs could not be updated because the fiscal year 2011­2015 future years defense program was not complete observations from our assessment of knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for 42 individual weapon programs in dod s 2009 portfolio we assessed the knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process our analysis allows us to make five observations about dod s management of technology design and manufacturing risks and its use of testing and early systems engineering to reduce these risks these observations present a mixed picture of dod s adherence to a knowledge-based acquisition approach first newer programs are beginning with higher levels of technology maturity but they are not taking other steps such as holding early systems engineering reviews to ensure there is a match between 11 dod is required to submit selected acquisition reports to congress at the end of each fiscal year quarter on current major defense acquisition programs although certain exceptions apply selected acquisition reports for the first quarter of a fiscal year are known as comprehensive annual selected acquisition reports each comprehensive annual selected acquisition report is required to be submitted within 60 days after the date on which the president transmits the budget to congress for the following fiscal year 10 u.s.c § 2432b 1 c 4 f 12 four programs prepared a baseline selected acquisition report or a selected acquisition report following a nunn-mccurdy unit cost breach one program was designated a major acquisition information system program and twelve programs that were new major defense acquisition programs or were being restructured did not prepare any selected acquisition reports page 9 gao-10-388sp assessments of major weapon programs

[close]