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goldilocks black holes cosmology magnetic sensing in animals biology technology to predict crime computing january 2012 scientificamerican.com the pathway of youth new insights into the body s aging-control system © 2011 scientific american

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knowledge is voice-activated personal climate control voice-activated playlists for less than you expect now you know.

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power it s not just luxury it s smarter than that learn more about the 2 0 1 2 lincolnmkx and sync® with mylincoln touchtm at lincoln c o m driving while distracted can result in loss of vehicle control only use sync/mylinc ln touch/other devices even with v while distract d c acted e ult in vehicle control o e e ync/mylinco to ch/oth de ic ync/mylinco ouch h ncoln ices e vo voice commands when it is safe to do so som e feat ure s m ay be loc ked ou t w hil e t he veh icl eising ear mma when s safe do so some feat u re eature e y locked o lo h vehicl c gear ear.

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on the cover what if human aging could be slowed beyond giving us more years of life the intervention should postpone cancer diabetes and other age-related diseases keeping us vibrant longer recent research has revealed a molecular regulator of aging and raised hopes that medicines might one day act on it to help us achieve those aims photograph by evan kafka january 2012 volume 306 number 1 48 feature sbio lo gy hea lth 60 five hidden dangers of obesity excess weight can harm health in ways that may come as a surprise by christine gorman tec hnology 32 a new path to longevity biologists have uncovered an ancient mechanism that retards aging drugs that tweaked it could well postpone many debilitating diseases of old age by david stipp cos m o lo gy 62 the department of pre-crime in cities across the u.s data-rich computer technology is telling cops where crimes are about to happen but does the technology really work by james vlahos phys ics 40 goldilocks black holes middleweight black holes ranging from about 1,000 to two million suns in mass may hold clues to how their much larger siblings and galaxies first formed by jenny e greene an imalbe havio r 68 the science of the glory one of the most beautiful phenomena in meteorology has a surprisingly subtle explanation by h moysés nussenzveig susta ina bil it y 48 the compass within animals magnetic sense is real scientists are zeroing in on how it works by davide castelvecchi immuno logy 54 the patient scientist ralph m steinman believed the key to curing cancer lay with the immune system after he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2007 he used his research to extend his own life just long enough to earn the nobel prize by katherine harmon providing food today uses energy and hurts the environment much more than it needs to by michael e webber env ironment 80 dust up biologist jayne belnap warns that the american west will face a chokingly dusty future if we don t take better care of desert topsoil interview by brendan borrell 2 scientific american january 2012 photograph by christopher griffith © 2011 scientific american cover hair and makeup by nikki wang 74 more food less energy

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department s 6 from the editor 8 letters 12 science agenda keep the cloud safe from spying eyes by the editors 14 forum 12 the coming mega drought by peter h gleick and matthew heberger 16 advances revenge of the drones plight of the condors mammogram questions fuel from algae boys aren t better at math why it s raining satellites 28 the science of health new county rankings show what we need for better health by deborah franklin 31 technofiles how much of a personality do we want from our computers by david pogue 84 recommended denizens of the deep the tale of a dangerous gene dirty minds by kate wong 22 85 skeptic in the year 9595 by michael shermer 86 anti gravity the moon is made of green cheese not by steve mirsky 87 50 100 150 years ago 92 graphic science buying a better bulb by john matson on the web top 10 science stories of 2011 a giant earthquake and tsunami devastated japan the space shuttle program completed its 30-year run and the tech world lost a titan of innovation these are among the stories that shaped the science world in 2011 go to www.scientificamerican.com/jan2012/top-stories 84 scientific american issn 0036-8733 volume 306 number 1 january 2012 published monthly by scientific american a division of nature america inc 75 varick street 9th floor new york n.y 10013-1917 periodicals postage paid at new york n.y and at additional mailing offices canada post international publications mail canadian distribution sales agreement no 40012504 canadian bn no 127387652rt tvq1218059275 tq0001 publication mail agreement #40012504 return undeliverable mail to scientific american p.o box 819 stn main markham on l3p 8a2 individual subscription rates 1 year $39.97 usd canada $49.97 usd international $61 usd institutional subscription rates schools and public libraries 1 year $72 usd canada $77 usd international $84 usd businesses and colleges/universities 1 year $330 usd canada $335 usd international $342 usd postmaster send address changes to scientific american box 3187 harlan iowa 51537 reprints available write reprint department scientific american 75 varick street 9th floor new york n.y 10013-1917 fax 646-563-7138 reprints@sciam.com subscription inquiries u.s and canada 800 333-1199 other 515 248-7684 send e-mail to sacust@sciam.com printed in u.s.a copyright © 2011 by scientific american a division of nature america inc all rights reserved 4 scientific american january 2012 © 2011 scientific american

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helping to make better diagnoses a unique database of healthybrain scans may help distinguish normal aging from dementia positron emission tomography pet may become an even more powerful tool for distinguishing between normal aging and dementia such as alzheimer s disease thanks to a unique database and analytics being developed by hamamatsu for a number of years hamamatsu has been building an unusual database we now have pet brain scans from over 6,000 normal healthy individuals both men and women in a wide range of ages and our researchers have learned a lot about how healthy brains look and how they change over time so in the future doctors may be able to spot hamamatsu is opening the new frontiers of light more subtle anomalies in brain health by comparing their patients pet scans with hamamatsu s database specifically by sex and age hamamatsu s aim is to provide clinicians with new tools to help them distinguish more clearly between normal aging and the early stages of dementia because earlier diagnoses may give doctors more options for treatment and though there are no cures for alzheimer s disease at present starting treatment earlier may give patients and their caregivers precious extra time to enjoy their quality of life it s one more way hamamatsu is opening the new frontiers of light to improve our world http jp.hamamatsu.com/en/rd/publication pet brain scan images color overlay mri images gray to provide a comprehensive view of the brain s health the upper row shows brain changes associated with normal aging the lower row shows the onset of dementia one form of which is alzheimer s disease orange-to-yellow coloring indicates regions with reduced glucose metabolism.

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from the editor a the science of staying young nd in the end it s not the years in your life that count it s the life in your years as the quote attributed to abraham lincoln goes although we humans have never been satisfied with the biblical allotment of threescore and ten neither do we want to extend our life span only to pass the time in a decrepit state no we want a longer health span might we be on the trail of one the cover story a new path to longevity by david stipp describes intriguing research into a billion-year-old mechanism that slows aging and could postpone the diseases of old age letting us live healthier lives for longer the work centers on studies of a protein called mammalian tor or mtor interference with mtor in mice by a drug called rapamycin in three parallel experiments extended life for the rodents by 9 to 14 percent showing that the molecule plays a central role in aging turn to page 32 at the outset of his career ralph m steinman first described dendritic cells later shown to play a crucial role in preventing disease in the patient scientist by katherine harmon starting on page 54 you ll learn how steinman diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2007 used his own research to extend his life just long enough to win the nobel prize last fall a lot of life in those years indeed mariette dichristina is editor in chief of scientific american find her on twitter @mdichristina meet the whales if you ve been following scientific american s activities you know we re excited about citizen science the idea that people who are not working scientists can nonetheless actively contribute to research the citizen science tab on our home page at www.scientificamerican.com links to lists of existing projects now we add an original of our own produced in partnership with zooniverse the whale song project at http whale.fm families of orcas also known as killer whales and pilot whales both members of the dolphin family have their own dialects orcas for instance have more than 150 types of calls scientists want to categorize these songs to try to understand what the animals are saying you can help by clicking on a spectrogram which shows the shape of a sound you can listen to recordings made by underwater hydrophones and then decide what categories to assign them to when you cast your vote that a given song clip sounds similar to another that vote along with those of other participants will help scientists identify sound patterns and groupings which will assist in understanding how whales communicate because whales can sing at frequencies higher than we humans can hear and some clips are short the songs are slowed down to make it easier to listen to them so take a virtual adventure in interspecies communication while you contribute to real science at http /whale.fm stay tuned too to learn what citizens and scientists together find out we ll report the results in due course m.d board of advisers leslie c aiello president wenner-gren foundation for anthropological research david gross roger bingham co-founder and director the science network ceo burrill company frederick w gluck professor of theoretical physics university of california santa barbara nobel prize in physics 2004 mallinckrodt professor of physics and of applied physics harvard university co-chairman applied minds steven kyle professor of applied economics and management cornell university david h koch institute professor massachusetts institute of technology professor harvard law school carolyn porco robert s langer leader cassini imaging science team and director ciclops space science institute director center for brain and cognition university of california san diego professor of physics harvard university professor of cosmology and astrophysics university of cambridge michael shermer michael snyder publisher skeptic magazine professor of genetics stanford university school of medicine lene vestergaard hau vilayanur s ramachandran g steven burrill arthur caplan lawrence lessig ernest j moniz michael e webber emanuel and robert hart professor of bioethics university of pennsylvania director center for computational genetics harvard medical school danny hillis george m church daniel m kammen rita colwell distinguished professor university of maryland college park and johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health professor of bioengineering stanford university class of 1935 distinguished professor of energy energy and resources group and director renewable and appropriate energy laboratory university of california berkeley founder khosla ventures lois and victor troendle professor of cognitive and behavioral biology california institute of technology and cso allen institute for brain science cecil and ida green distinguished professor massachusetts institute of technology professor of microbiology and immunology weill medical college of cornell university professor and head of engineering and public policy carnegie mellon university co-director center for neuroengineering duke university director program for evolutionary dynamics harvard university provost and professor of biology rensselaer polytechnic institute lisa randall associate director center for international energy environmental policy university of texas at austin director theory research group department of physics university of texas at austin nobel prize in physics 1979 professor of chemistry and chemical biology harvard university director global viral forecasting initiative steven weinberg martin rees john p moore george m whitesides john reganold vinod khosla m granger morgan drew endy regents professor of soil science washington state university director the earth institute columbia university christof koch jeffrey d sachs nathan wolfe ed felten miguel nicolelis director center for information technology policy princeton university deputy director defense advanced research projects agency director sage center for the study of mind university of california santa barbara eugenie scott r james woolsey jr kaigham j gabriel lawrence m krauss director origins initiative arizona state university director hedonia trygfonden research group university of oxford and university of aarhus martin nowak executive director national center for science education professor and laboratory head of computational neurobiology laboratory salk institute for biological studies venture partner vantagepoint venture partners professor of quantum optics quantum nanophysics quantum information university of vienna professor harvard law school anton zeilinger michael s gazzaniga morten l kringelbach terry sejnowski robert palazzo jonathan zittrain 6 scientific american january 2012 illustration by nick higgins © 2011 scientific american

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ipod not included the wave® music system ® with connect kit for ipod you really love your ipod now there s a reason to love it even more take every song on your playlist and bring it to life out loud with the award-winning sound of the wave ® music system te optional connect kit for ipod makes it easy even charging your ipod or iphone® so you can pick it up and go the wave® music system can bring new life to all your music including cds and radio this is a complete high-performance system that includes a clock an alarm and a handy remote that also controls key ipod features like playlist navigation murray hill of the postmedia news service says that everyone is astonished at the sound you can hear every nuance take advantage of our 30-day risk-free trial ask about making 12 easy payments with no interest charges from bose order the wave® music system now and you ll even save $50 hear your playlist like never before with the performance of bose the most respected name in sound te connect kit plays music from and charges most ipod and iphone models in the event of audio interference set iphone to airplane mode bose payment plan available on orders of $299 1500 paid by major credit card separate financing offers may be available for select products see website for details down payment is 1/12 the product price plus applicable tax and shipping charges charged when your order is shipped ten your credit card will be billed for 11 equal monthly installments beginning approximately one month from the date your order is shipped with 0 apr and no interest charges from bose credit card rules and interest may apply u.s residents only limit one active financing program per customer ©2011 bose corporation te distinctive design of the wave® music system is a registered trademark of bose corporation financing and savings offers not to be combined with other offers or applied to previous purchases and subject to change without notice offers are limited to purchases made from bose and participating authorized dealers offers valid 11/20/11-1/2/12 risk free refers to 30-day trial only requires product purchase and does not include return shipping delivery is subject to product availability iphone and ipod are registered trademarks of apple inc quotes reprinted with permission save $50 when you order the wave ® music system by january 2 2012 to order or learn more bose.com /connect 1-800-411-8072 ext tx384

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letters editors@sciam.com preventing another 9/11 requires owning up to what uncon trolled fires can do to tall buildings luke bisby university of edinburgh september 2011 why cities succeed in bigger cities do more with less luís m a bettencourt and geoffrey b west assert that a high-rent city allows only greatly value-adding activities to be profitable which leads to a cycle in which more talent is attracted pushing rents higher still fueling the need to find yet more productive activities the serious downside of higher commercial property rents is that many small businesses such as barbershops dry cleaners and convenience stores are forced out of residential neighborhoods there are many services that cannot be acquired through the internet ronald bourque brooklyn bettencourt and west seem perplexed that the san francisco bay area and the boston region outperform other similar urban conglomerations they attribute this to certain intangible qualities of social dynamics rather than the development of material infrastructure i would suggest that although harvard university the massachusetts institute of technology stanford university and the university of california berkeley do instill certain intangible qualities in their students these institutions are very much material infrastructure and probably explain a lot of the difference in economic development lee otterholt laguna beach calif the correlation bettencourt and west make between patents and population confuses cause and effect cities mostly grow because innovative companies are successful and attract employees from all over the world not because an urban environment spurs innovation here in silicon valley most of the innovation comes from midpeninsula suburban cities between san francisco and urban san jose and companies here and in dallas strive for an informal campus style of construction with open spaces innovation comes from synergy among entrepreneurship available venture capital access to universities a mobile and diverse workforce and a place where people want to live ben roberts sunnyvale calif supertall scrutiny in presenting the changes that have occurred in the design of skyscrapers since september 11 2001 in castles in the air mark lamster notes three threats aircraft impact earthquakes and wind he correctly claims that structural engineers are now able to effectively design against them unfortunately the twin towers collapsed primarily because of fire and nowhere in the article is fire explicitly mentioned as a structural threat on 9/11 we clearly saw that fire can cause entire modern high-rise buildings to collapse indeed 7 world trade center a steelframed high-rise was not struck by an aircraft but collapsed because of fire ignited by debris from the twin towers to ensure safety in ever taller buildings the potential impacts of uncontrolled fire need to be explicitly considered during the structural design process with the same care as earthquakes and wind while changes in escape-stair width fire fighter communications systems and the addition of sky bridges all noted by lamster can only improve life safety in tall buildings they do not prevent structural collapse resulting from fire preventing another 9/11 requires that the structural engineering and architecture communities own up to the reality of what uncontrolled fire can do to tall buildings and take the necessary actions luke bisby senior research fellow in structures and fire university of edinburgh lamster mentions that the bank of america tower in new york city creates two thirds of its own energy with a gas generator but it depletes our unquestionably finite supply of natural gas to generate that energy bill christian north bennington vt castles in the air left the false impression that high-rise buildings are inherently green and essential to making cities more sustainable compared with lowerrise construction they require more energy and their wind tunnels and long shadows diminish livability whereas cities do need minimum corridor and neighborhood densities to support their pedestrian and transit-based economies an occasional high-rise barely makes a dent lacking definitive research on the optimal scale of a sustainable city i ve nonetheless made informal surveys of expert colleagues that suggest that four to 30 stories is the optimal range for buildings in a sustainable city doug farr president farr associates chicago simple security david pogue is correct in password prevented [technofiles that our current method of making passwords is the worst of all possible worlds it creates passwords that are nearly impossible for a human to remember but still relatively easy for a computer to guess the true secret to security is the reverse a password scheme that is easy for users to remember so they don t write it 8 scientific american january 2012 © 2011 scientific american

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briefings a new collection of e-publications from scientific american introducing briefings brings you up to speed with research highlights selected from peerreviewed professional science journals each issue delivers the most current scientific developments on the topics that matter most to you simple easy and fast for more information and to order please visit subscription only monthly e-publications include nanotechnology climate change environment mind brain health medicine and space physics www.scientificamerican.com/briefings

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letters down but close to impossible for a computer to guess the method of picking a string of letters and numbers gives a result that could be beaten in about three days of determined effort and is pretty much impossible to remember a phrase of four random words however can be easy to remember but can require more than 500 years to guess andrew bennett belmont mass poverty priority edward glaeser s point that education matters more to the health of a city than construction and transportation projects in brains over buildings is valid but superficial for a poor urban community of color to prosper or nowadays survive good education that s free and relevant is essential but people need to eat too the trouble with urban development is that the contractors and workers almost never come from the community being developed and the article doesn t mention the barriers erected in the past few years to accessing the two things it touts education and entrepreneurship even san francisco city college is too expensive for most people in the city s neighborhood of hunter s point and cutbacks to faculty and classes make it futile for many we re all for entrepreneurship but what about redlining which has gotten worse and is augmented by predatory loans that are nothing but landgrabs and try running a business without money further a metric glaeser ignores is the rich who have education and entrepreneurship in abundance pushing the poor out of the cities altogether if the poor see that education will get them somewhere and help them feed their families they and their kids will go for it otherwise what s the point mary ratcliff editor san francisco bay view clarification in the best and brightest [forum new york city mayor michael r bloomberg refers to the university of michigan as growing out of the land grant program that was created in 1862 the university was founded in 1817 although it did benefit from earlier land grants established 1845 senior vice president and editor in chief mariette dichristina executive editor fred guterl board of editors news editor robin lloyd senior editors mark fischetti christine gorman anna kuchment michael moyer george musser gary stix kate wong art director ian brown art director information graphics jen christiansen art director online ryan reid managing editor ricki l rusting managing editor online philip m yam design director michael mrak associate editors david biello larry greenemeier katherine harmon john matson podcast editor steve mirsky blogs editor bora zivkovic contributing editors mark alpert steven ashley davide castelvecchi graham p collins deborah franklin maryn mckenna john rennie sarah simpson online contributor christie nicholson managing production editor richard hunt senior production editor michelle wright art contributors edward bell caitlin choi nick higgins winner of the 2011 national magazine award for general excellence letters to theedi to r scientific american 75 varick street 9th floor new york ny 10013-1917 or editors@sciam.com letters may be edited for length and clarity we regret that we cannot answer each one post a comment on any article at scientificamerican.com/jan2012 h o w to c o n tac t u s photography editor monica bradley assistant photo editor ann chin information graphics consultant bryan christie copy director maria-christina keller senior copy editor daniel c schlenoff editorial product manager angela cesaro editorial administrator avonelle wing production manager christina hippeli advertising production manager carl cherebin president copy editors michael battaglia aaron shattuck web production editor kerrissa lynch senior secretary maya harty prepress and quality manager silvia de santis custom publishing manager madelyn keyes-milch production coordinator lisa headley subscriptions for new subscriptions renewals gifts payments and changes of address u.s and canada 800-333-1199 outside north america 515-248-7684 or www.scientificamerican.com submissions to 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sales representative chantel arroyo director ancillary products diane mcgarvey custom publishing editor lisa pallatroni online associate director mike kelly online associate marketing manager carey tse online marketing product manager zoya lysack executive vice president michael florek vice president and publisher bruce brandfon vice president and associate publisher marketing and business development michael voss vice president digital solutions wendy elman managing director consumer marketing christian dorbandt senior marketing manager/retention catherine bussey senior marketing manager online david courage senior marketing manager/acquisition patricia elliott director global media solutions jeremy a abbate manager integrated media sales stan schmidt scientific american is a trademark of scientific american inc used with permission 10 scientific american january 2012 © 2011 scientific american

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college of psychology and behavioral sciences science in practice doctor of psychology psyd in clinical psychology degree program for more than 30 years we have been educating professional psychologists who have benefitted from the unique value of argosy university s schools of professional psychology s emphasis on research-based practice this practitioner-scholar model of training integrates sound scientific theory with the development of the skills and attitudes needed to be a clinical psychologist argosy university is committed to educating psychologists who will have a positive impact in the world and on the field of psychology our program is academically challenging while encouraging your development as a person and a professional we believe in high standards faculty mentorship and opportunities to learn while you practice with experienced supervisors in the field our graduates are prepared to provide ethical and quality services in a variety of settings and many of our alumni are engaged in work that has expanded the impact of psychology on the world to find out more information on any of our 12 different schools of professional psychology clinical programs visit us at www.argosy.edu see auprograms.info for program duration tuition fees and other costs median debt federal salary data alumni success and other important info financial aid is available to those who qualify argosy university is accredited by the accrediting commission for senior colleges and universities of the western association of schools and colleges 985 atlantic avenue suite 100 alameda california 94501 http www.wascsenior.org the doctor of psychology in clinical psychology degree programs at argosy university atlanta chicago hawaii orange county phoenix schaumburg tampa twin cities and washington dc are accredited by the commission on accreditation of the american psychological association apa 750 first street n.e washington d.c 20002-4242,1.202.336.5979 the doctor of psychology in clinical psychology program at argosy university san francisco bay area is accredited on probation with the commission on accreditation of the american psychological association apa 750 first street n.e washington d.c 20002-4242 1.202.336.5979.

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science agenda by the editors opinion and analysis from scientific american s board of editors read my e-mail get a warrant as personal data move to the cloud congress needs to update privacy laws last october the well-known hacking group chaos computer club revealed that the german state police had been monitoring the computers of ordinary citizens using specially designed surveillance software this spyware could peek into users files record keystrokes take screenshots of web pages users happened to be visiting and even commandeer web cams and microphones giving the cops an open window into the home the revelations invited comparisons to the stasi the infamous police force that operated in the former east germany it was a clear violation of citizens rights and about as quaint as a cold war spy movie nowadays governments have far more comprehensive ways of monitoring citizens than merely tapping computers on desktops or in briefcases hardly any of us still keep our private data solely in any one machine instead it resides on corporate servers far from our homes e-mail providers save messages in giant server farms distributed around the world online services such as google docs dropbox and icloud store spreadsheets and word-processing files in the cloud so that we can work on critical documents wherever we happen to be wireless phone companies keep records of the individual towers our cell phones connect to as we move around our communities we tend to assume that these data are ours to keep private just as we expect that the data on our machines are private but here the law fails us the last wholesale revision to u.s electronic privacy law was the electronic communications privacy act of 1986 ecpa which prevented law enforcement from eavesdropping on digital files as they moved through the nascent internet before then the department of justice had argued that monitoring anything that wasn t a voice call wasn t a wiretap and therefore didn t require a warrant yet much has since changed in 1986 when digital storage was expensive an e-mail provider would send a file to the recipient s computer and delete the message from its own servers soon thereafter congress therefore let the protections of the act expire after a file had been stored for 180 days in 1986 cell phones were still mostly called car phones because the briefcase-size boxes they required were usually kept in a vehicle the first satellite that would make up the global positioning system was still three years away from launch as was the world wide web in 1986 facebook genius mark zuckerberg was two law-enforcement agencies have been making active use of all the new data these technologies generate google reports that u.s government agencies send it nearly 1,000 requests for user information every month the company complied with 93 percent of them between january and june of last year the most recent period for which statistics are available verizon executives told congress in 2007 that law-enforcement agencies send the company 90,000 requests for user details a year including information on the specific locations of cell-phone customers in part because of this deluge a broad coalition of technology companies think tanks and privacy advocates called digital due process has formed to ask congress to update the ecpa for the modern age its demand is simple enough if a law-enforcement agency wants to look at private user data whether e-mails documents or cell-phone location information it needs a warrant this reasonable demand for clarity is fully in keeping with the spirit of the original ecpa as well as the fourth amendment of the constitution s prohibition against unreasonable searches and seizures indeed the digital due process coalition has brought together some uncommon allies the american civil liberties union the competitive enterprise institute amazon americans for tax reform and at&t to name just a few near the top of the alphabet it deserves support from all members of congress too it is important to maintain a balance between the needs of security and the right of each citizen to lead a private life cops should be able to investigate a suspect s e-mail location and other data but first they should have to ask a judge scientific american online comment on this article at scientificamerican.com/jan2012 12 scientific american january 2012 illustration by post typography © 2011 scientific american

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a special collector s edition from scientific american take a journey through time literally what keeps time moving forward is time an illusion how to build a time machine atoms of space and time could time the myth end of the beginning of time how time flies available on newsstands now a matter of time a special collector s edition from scientific american takes you on a journey through the reality and illusion of time the ultimate paradox with nineteen feature articles a matter of time explores the scientific aspects of time from the fixed past to the tangible present to the undecided future hurry time is running out this special edition is available on newsstands for a limited time only copyright © 2011 by scientific american a division of nature america inc all right reserved.

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