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keywords virtual worlds e-commerce web 2.0 web 3.0 metaphor shear social media ubiquity secondlife metaverse law of accelerating returns augmented reality meritocracy paradigm shift marketing dynamic virtual environments the future of virtual worlds in e-commerce william g burns iii project manager andromeda media group united states www.andromeda3d.com abstract entrepreneurship does not just guide the process of having an idea and then building a business a true entrepreneur has to predict the future dustin curtis the science of entrepreneurship the future of the evolving collaborative communications structure will be impacted to an enormous and ever increasing degree by the merging of ecommerce and virtual worlds such media outlets will bring new and innovative methods by which to interact with clients and customers as well as business to business as these technologies continue to evolve bringing higher definition realism and the power to manipulate potential customer experiences increasing numbers of people will come to the realization that virtual worlds and similar environments are an essential part of an online communications experience evidence of this paradigm shift can be noted in the multitudes of brand names which also inhabit these virtual environments through countless offerings and marketing

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campaigns introduction street lights grasp at the darkness of the city as the advertisements flicker in and out of focus to the passing patrons above a floating sentinel scans each passer-by with mechanical precision displaying each person s identification via holographic display to those who care to see some women some men various ages and demographics light up the display as well as various species further along the dimly lit street digital screens scroll through social media displays from various accounts showing an information stream unending elsewhere a crowd enjoys the nightlife at a popular club floating in the sky miles above the mainland clouds wisp past the balcony enticing those who dare to take flight with drinks in hand like some fantastic dream these patrons do not fall to a gruesome death but instead glide carelessly across the air a message displays on a h.u.d from a friend asking to join at the current location and within an instant another person materializes nearby this is the future of electronic commerce and virtual environments it takes place in a space which blends fantasy and reality comprising a hybrid reality of streaming information targeted marketing and the ability to sell to anyone anywhere at any time it is the culmination of digital evolution the ideas of many brought to existence through pure imagination and executed in real time this information stream will be ubiquitous and come from countless sources including sources from businesses wishing to reach a demographic target within an ever shortening time frame in a

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world of accelerated progress and shorter spans between paradigm shifts how will businesses manage the information overload that will be part of everyday life going forward in the future there will be no compulsion for a business to submit manually the same information to many places instead information will increasingly be integrated into what can best be described as a many to many approach this form of publication will evolve from today s traditional one to many approach as an rss feed would solicit response from whatever media form it is embedded in web mobile virtual world regardless of where such feeds are displayed digitally and physically details and examples of this type of many to many networking are prevalent today in infancy as the proliferation of high-end brand names continually create virtual environment offerings to extend marketing reach and offer a tailored environment to potential clients within a high technology setting technology is continuing to improve by leaps and bounds as too is the rate of this improvement thus it is safe to say that the abilities of virtual environments will also improve at an ever increasing rate being directly based on the enhanced technologies which were present prior to current offerings and soon to reach into a realm of hyper realism businesses can no longer afford to be passive with their approaches to e-commerce and virtual worlds nor can businesses be passive in regards to social media while it would be assumed that these types of technologies would require separate tactics the future of these technologies will exhibit an ubiquitous merger whereby the data and services of one sector will be readily and easily available to other services and technologies through cross integration.

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the rate of data proliferation is consistently increasing by orders of magnitude over smaller lengths of time instead of `more of the same the new challenge becomes how to integrate this vast and continually growing storehouse of information into trending knowledge to aid businesses when how and where it is required if any business is going to be successful going forward that business must embrace constructive ways to avoid metaphor shear consumers will have a shorter window of opportunity to interact with any one business so businesses must endeavor to capture interest not by shouting louder than any other because consumers will increasingly tune this deafening noise out as possibilities explode outwards instead a business will thrive in the future by utilizing smarter and more targeted approaches in this chapter specific examples will be explained in order to clarify the fine line between passive and aggressive marketing tactics and how each affect the consumer in a positive or negative manner in a world of information overload businesses must strive to strike a balance between e-commerce efforts and the consumer demographic target businesses will not only have to be smarter and faster but will have to act responsibly in order to avoid over saturation of any particular method.

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background somewhere in the world today an internet user is logging into a social media outlet account with a few basic credentials and by the soft glow of a flat screen this user will wield enormous power from a simple home computer or even from a mobile device connected through data streams such as wi-fi or more advanced technologies from this central outlet one can post updates participate in promotional offerings share various forms of media and converse with friends when participating in a virtual environment this user will literally alter the world around them wielding enormous powers of creation in the future the social communications platforms will no longer be confined within a walled garden but instead will proliferate through various forms of communication and media at the press of a single key what begins as a simple status update on a social media network proliferates across the world to mobile phones and devices as well as other social media networks and services it will be passed along by others replied to indexed by major search engines and even displayed in a virtual environment where anyone may see those words and thoughts and even reply in the future social media and virtual environments will empower users with what can only be described as the keystroke heard around the world with the proliferation of web 2.0 technologies such as social media facebook myspace twitter as well as instant information syndication methods and virtual worlds technologies the traditional market model whereby information propagates from prospective major outlets who hold strong controls on the market are rendered

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obsolete in a world where any business can interface equally with any consumer and vice-versa it is no-longer possible to utilize a static approach to reach the masses thus it comes to light that businesses can no longer expect to reach the targeted demographics by merely participating within each community separately nor can businesses hold the power to dictate a controlled message to the intended audience instead businesses must find methods by which to propagate the message clearly and concisely through a single means of dynamic distribution whilst the message itself reaches the many networks involved regardless of the permutations which said message will undergo in the process in the future electronic commerce and affiliated marketing must evolve to embrace the ubiquity and transparency that will become a social environment it must also be understood that bigger does not always mean better when it comes to the industry of virtual environments and social media marketing brand and corporate demographic reach are not empowered further by the brick and mortar paradigm but instead businesses must strive to reinvent brand identity on a smaller scale to reach highly targeted audiences as such methods of distribution will evolve to reach a targeted and precise audience in a fashion of one point of distribution to many outlets with a virtual world environment being but one of many conduits for the message through syndication methods with this distribution evolution businesses will also find that the audience is not simply passive but provides real time feedback offering an unprecedented communications channel unlike anything ever seen before this real time communications channel also requires that the old processes

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evolve to acknowledge and embrace the understanding that control over the entire distribution channel for products and services must be partially relinquished in turn this will be the hardest step for any retailer in the coming years to adapt to often finding it hard to relinquish even partial control in return for a higher and more targeted demographic reach often times the efforts will seem to evolve into an entirely new entity as the client and demographic target proliferate the message and content in manners which the originating entity would never have foreseen so too the highly collaborative nature in this field provides for near instantaneous feedback and permutation from the target demographic in the form of comments positive and negative response as well as various evolutions of the original message in media forms and copy-cat offerings unforeseen by the originating entity in terms of massive multi-user virtual environments there exists a mentality by which the very participants of the respective systems are encouraged to not only be consumers but also producers of content in this manner a business solution must be offered which does not violate current accepted practice or attempt to redefine existing conduits of practice for the participants instead it must be noted that in order to be successful in the virtual worlds demographic one must utilize existing tools made available to the intended consumer while offering a product or service which is both better than consumer created versions while adhering to pricing standards as defined by the virtual environment which said product or service exists within in short such practices concerning business within a virtual environment adhere to one of the bullet points made clear in 1991 by chip morningstar and f randall farmer when both collaboratively wrote the essay lessons learned from

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lucasfilm s habitat in this groundbreaking essay it was stated simply to work within the system while relinquishing complete or even partial control over the intended message or product may seem as though it should be avoided businesses must take caution not to revert to previous brick and mortar approaches as such thinking has little to no positive effect in this collaborative environment structure in short the best way to avoid a negative backlash is to adhere to the retailer saying the customer is always right exponentially so in the 21st century as the lines of communication are held by multitudes and spread at the speed of fiber optic welcome to the meritocracy logging into the virtual environment users began to notice that the frequency of system updates began to increase eventually culminating into passive updates streaming behind the scenes dynamically updating the protocols and software did away with cumbersome batch updates and awkward installations from the past rightly so it was noted because the near constant updates would have made it completely impossible to utilize the technologies in any other manner and each time the users logged into their accounts the virtual environment greeted them with more to offer and ever higher fidelity technology is continuing to improve by leaps and bounds and shows no signs of slowing down within a lifetime thus so too will the abilities and technologies which make up virtual worlds environments continue to evolve at an ever increasing pace businesses can no longer afford to utilize standardized approaches to e-commerce

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and virtual worlds nor can a business treat social media outlets as individual strategies the future of e-commerce and these technologies will require a different frame of mind a proactive mindset in order to think ahead in relation to new technologies and how such can be used as part of the marketing arsenal in the coming years the continuing paradigm shifts will revolutionize the way business is done in the 21st century and usher in an age of accelerating returns as the time to enact a campaign shortens by astounding rates within the next five to ten years it will become apparent that years of research and months of careful planning to act on a trend will only leave a business with multi-million dollar failures in the public eye instead research and planning in relation to virtual worlds environment projects must outline a manner by which to create a dynamically evolving approach whereby a virtual environment would continually be updated and revised offer a selection of high quality free content while also incorporating dynamically updating informational content such as social media integration within the environment planning a dynamic approach to virtual environments one must also take into consideration the frequency of events held at said virtual location as the more activity which is perceived to exist at the virtual location the more activity it will attract unlike the past twenty years a virtual environment represents a living and breathing community in real time versus prior static approaches to marketing and demographic targeting whereby simply constructing a polished and professional website was enough to continue a presence online in the same manner as the world wide web before it the virtual environment exists with abundant automation solutions but one must balance automation with live and dedicated persons to

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interact with consumers and businesses as if the virtual location were a real location to do otherwise today and in the future will only serve to fracture the hard earned trust and interest of the consumer as the global digital community evolves with ever increasing capacity what will drive the mentality of the participants is innovation and collaboration as it does today keeping in mind the general law of accelerating returns kurzweil 2001 progress will continually accelerate with new breakthroughs and paradigms in what seem like shorter periods of time in the 21st century alone technology will not experience 100 years of progress at today s rate instead innovation will see an explosion of accelerated progress in terms of 20,000 years of progress at today s rate while accelerating returns have an effect on all manner of society and technology when the subset for virtual worlds environments and collaborative media are extrapolated the growth and innovation follows the same aspects as the entirety of the curve in relation to the understanding of electronic commerce social media and virtual environments as a whole this rapidly increasing explosion of information extrapolation and return will drastically reduce the reaction times and windows of opportunity to act upon incoming trends businesses in turn will soon find that the once forgiving attitudes of the general demographic will instead be more fickle in attention span and opportunity for adoption of branding long term evaluation of case studies and trends will no longer be possible or of the current technologies in place waiting for a case study to be published which

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states that there is a viable demographic to reach will instead be an exercise in futility unless such information takes a dynamic approach instead of a static approach in the time it takes to analyze and mobilize efforts in a concerted manner based on static reports the trend will have passed in favor of yet another what is more disconcerting about this future is that these shifts will happen with increasing frequency and with less time passing between occurrences ultimately overlapping and merging into an ubiquitous stream of information and media what then of the future of electronic commerce and the virtual environment many questions should be raised concerning these extrapolations and predictions but most importantly one should ask if the future of electronic commerce requires the ability to see the future itself and make predictions while trend forecasting often is an integral part of a marketing strategy today there will soon come a time when trend forecasting becomes a mandatory part of business ventures and no longer an option unlike the prior century where the pace of technological achievement moved at a slow enough speed to afford the time for prolonged research and decision making businesses must instead learn to analyze the future paradigms and put into place strategies which will act upon trends which are forthcoming in this manner the future of e-commerce social media and virtual environments will adhere to the idea of staying ahead of the curve in order to properly understand the nature of accelerated returns it must first be outlined in a broader sense from the beginning in relation to this there is no better explanation of this concept than from the man who is credited with its inception r kurzweil phd with the writing of the law of accelerating returns:

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the first technological steps-sharp edges fire the wheel took tens of thousands of years for people living in this era there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years by 1000 a.d progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two in the nineteenth century we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century now paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time the world wide web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago it didn t exist at all a decade ago the paradigm shift rate i.e the overall rate of technical progress is currently doubling approximately every decade that is paradigm shift times are halving every decade and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially so the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require in the linear view on the order of 200 centuries in contrast the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress again at today s rate of progress since we have been speeding up to current rates so the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor kurzweilai.net march 7 2001 as time moves forward the rate of technological achievement increases in shorter periods of time following an exponential curve in advancement in terms of computer hardware the paradigm of moore s law only describes the shrinking of

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integrated circuitry and doubling of computational power on a predictable time line but also creates a profound parallel when extended to related technological advancements computing capacity doubles size reduces and costs remain the same therefore with ever increasing computing power in the hands of the consumer society can only expect rapid development of virtual environments with ever increasing levels of detail and fidelity when coupled with the law of accelerating returns not only will consumers be empowered with drastically increased computing capacity but such will occur over drastically decreasing amounts of time the extrapolation of moore s law put forward by r kurzweil as the law of accelerating returns shows that not only will moore s law progress into a new paradigm but it will do so in each phase with exponential speed of return this also applies to how the culture within that time frame will respond and work with data in various forms where once the general population experienced media in a passive manner newspapers television radio early internet the exponential aspects of the law of accelerating returns will be taking place in a more noticeable manner through increasingly non-passive means video-on-demand rss blogging social media virtual environments mirror worlds and augmented reality this in turn will give way to an increasingly complex and connected means of communications and community as the web 2.0 paradigm merges with and creates a new standard of global interconnectivity and `always online state through a high fidelity virtual environment or series of competing environments these new breeds of virtual environments will benefit from the accelerated return of

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technological innovation in that such will have access to a dynamically superior means of communications and realism in what will seem like shorter periods of time between releases as a result businesses can no longer rest on laurels in hopes that a product or service will sustain the business model indefinitely in retrospect businesses should instead be looking ahead of the curve and planning accordingly prior to the arrival of such technologies and paradigm shifts if the goal is to capitalize on these trends effectively and in a timely manner an excellent example of a relevant paradigm shift can be expressed through the recent demographics for facebook as of july 2009 whereby it was shown that there was an explosive 513 growth in the 55 demographic while in the same time frame the college and high school demographic usage dropped by 20 p corbett istrategy labs july 6th 2009 as this trend suggests facebook has become over saturated with higher aged demographics at the expense of the original demographic intention another point illustrated by this information is that after the initial build up of the high school and college aged demographics business aspects began to infiltrate these social circles in order to commercialize on an already existing trend when it was realized that there existed a huge potential in this area others began to apply targeted marketing in increasing numbers even to the point where entire seminars were and are being held with attendees of corporate culture evangelizing social media outlets to reach targeted demographics through the over saturation of a particular method by corporate means the intended outcome of the approach has seen negative outcomes and backlash corbett 2009

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in response to the unprecedented corporate influx of such spaces representing the higher age brackets the precise demographic for which the corporate influences wished to reach began to have a negative reaction and the social spaces which were the private haven of the younger demographic increasingly became less appealing on what will soon be seen as an accelerating pace between paradigm shifts prior to the initial surge of popularity for facebook a very similar order of events happened in regards to the social media service myspace whereby the same pattern of events unfolded when it began myspace attracted high school and college demographics as the service began to attract further involvement from corporate interests the service began to degrade in appeal to the original demographics when myspace was purchased and a large number of corporate interests flooded into the service for marketing and advertising to the original demographics those demographics began to leave for greener pastures to facebook with facebook the course of events are repeating as the floodgates of corporate involvement are opened and the companies which originally utilized myspace to market to that demographic jump ship and praise facebook as the next big thing the original demographics for facebook were as originally seen with myspace high school and college aged but with a 513 increase in users aged 55 and older which can be easily understood to include businesses and corporate aspects the original demographics are beginning to slip just as they originally did with myspace under the same circumstances using trend forecasting it can be said that facebook will inevitably fall prey to the same fate as myspace and for the same

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