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p. 2

7 ûnlodw nrplw vlqlq vdodpodpd p nwxex up wol v ujl lûwludnoÖoduÖ y trqdtodu 6l]o ul ´%dnx%xlogµ fl ued fdq %h q o[dot ùqûddw v ujlvlqg vdodpod ÖuÖt 6 ujl ex lo lon g i sdylo rq y doÖt vdk g qpd lû hwglulolu gw q loo ptd lv g ùqûddw v ujlvlqlq k p hnvsr]lvl d vdk vlqg k polqlq lûwludnoÖoduÖq vd Ö ed[ÖpÖqgdq duwÖp pûdklg roxqxu %x lo ´ u ùqûddw iw vlqg µ |on g q ûlun w lûwludn hglu nl exqoduÖq dudvÖqgd $opdql d lqodqgl d 3ruwxtdol d ùwdol d y ùudq plool sdylo rqoduÖ lo dqdûÖ or[ox vd gd 7unl ued fdq y glj u |on o ug q i ugl vwhqgo u g qpd lû roxqxu 7 tglp roxqdq ´

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p. 3

0hvvdjh iurp wkh 2ujdqlvhuv hdu klelwruv dqg 9lvlwruv :h duh yhu sohdvhg wr zhofrph rx wr ´%dnx%xlogµ wkh wk huedlmdq ,qwhuqdwlrqdo &rqvwuxfwlrq klelwlrq ,w lv wkh Àuvw wlph wkh h[klelwlrq kdv ehhq khog lq sdylolrqv dqg dq rshq duhd 7kh jurzwk ri wkh idlu lq whupv ri wkh qxpehu ri sduwlflsdqwv dqg ylvlwruv dprxqwv wr frpsduhg zlwk odvw hdu Àjxuhv 7klv hdu lq ´&dvsldq &rqvwuxfwlrq zhhnµ wkhuh zloo eh frpsdqlhv iurp frxqwulhv $orqj wkh lqglylgxdo vwdqgv iurp 7xunh huedlmdq qdwlrqdo vwdqgv iurp hupdq lqodqg 3ruwxjdo ,wdo dqg ,udq zloo eh suhvhqwhg dw wkh h[klelwlrq ´,qqrydwlrq =rqhµ fdwdorjxh zloo ghprqvwudwh wkh qhz surgxfwv dqg vhuylfhv frqvwuxfwlrq pdwhuldov dprqj wkhp jdv frqfuhwh Àeurxv frqfuhwh frqfuhwh dqg gu pl[wxuhv surgxfhg xvlqj qdqrwhfkqrorjlhv qhz frqvwuxfwlrq wrrov lqwhooljhqw frrolqj v vwhpv prghuq idfdgh dqg idflqj vwrqhv wkh prvw uhfhqw prglÀfdwlrq ri wkh uhyroylqj grruv khdy htxlsphqw yrowdjh vwdelol]hu lqvxodwlrq pdwhuldov Árru dqg urri wudlqlqj htxlsphqw ghvljqhg iru shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv dqg fkloguhq·v sod jurxqgv dqg rwkhu surgxfwv 7khvh fdwdorjxhv zloo eh glvwulexwhg dprqj wkh sduwlflsdqwv dqg ylvlwruv dqg sodfhg rq wkh riÀfldo zhevlwh ri wkh idlu 2ujdql]huv eholhyh wkdw wkh ´,qqrydwlrq =rqhµ surjudp zloo khos wkh sduwlflsdqwv sd dwwhqwlrq wr wkh qhz pruh ruljlqdo surgxfwv dqg zloo sxw wkhp lq sudfwlfdo xvh lq wkh orfdo pdunhw :h zlvk rx iuxlwixo dqg surgxfwlyh zrun dw wkh h[klelwlrq 7kh 2ujdqlvlqj &rpplwwhh 3

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p. 6

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv 0 .2125 1ù1 5ù1 7520 1ù 6$1 9 7ù /7 ú7ù 1 1 85 ² ´1h[xudµ vl]lq k dwÖqÖ]Ö gdkd gd udkdw hglu

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p. 7

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv 0 .2125 1 1 5,1 7520 1 6$1 9 7 /7 67 1 1 85 $² 1h[xud pdnhv rxu zruog d frpiruwdeoh rqh 7kh frroqhvv ri d vxpphu euhh]h ru wkh frvlqhvv ri dq h[wud khdw vrxufh eulqjv d ihholqj ri zhooehlqj wr rxu olylqj vsdfh doo hdu urxqg ,wv xqrevwuxfwlyh hw vw olvk ghvljq zlwk d iurqw sdqho wkdw udgldwhv dgglwlrqdo khdw lwv orz qrlvh ohyho dqg uhgxfhg dlu Árz wxuq rxu urrp lqwr d kdyhq dwh ri surmhfw ghyhorsphqw dwh ri suhvhqwdwlrq surgxfwwhfkqrorj vhuylfh iru zkrohvdoh dqg uhwdlo -xqh hvfulswlrq ri wkh dgydqwdjhv ri xvlqj wkh surgxfwwhfkqrorj vhuylfh 4xlhw dqg glvfuhwh 1h[xud riihuv rx wkh ehvw lq khdwlqj dqg frrolqj lq frpiruw dqg ghvljq ,w xvhv vwdwhriwkhduw khdw sxps whfkqrorj exw lwv ehvw ihdwxuh udgldqw khdw lv d klgghq rqh wkh iurqw sdqho khdwv xs wr jlyh rx wkdw xqltxh ihholqj ri d zdup udgldwru ;dtdql %dnx huedlmdq 7ho d pdlo lqir#pnrqirufrp 7

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p. 8

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv 00 7ù.ù17ù 0$75ù 4 2 721 ² lj u lqûddw pdwhuldooduÖqgdq i utol rodudt td]rehwrq p|kn pol l qjoo x]xq pgg w lvwlidg hglop vl lvwlol y ûd[wd d tduûÖ gdydpoÖoÖøÖ hnrorml w pl]ol l ed[ÖpÖqgdq i uto qlu 4d]rehwrq eornoduÖqÖq lvwhkvdoÖqgd k qg vl g tltoln rtgu nv nglu nl ex doqÖ pp n qduodûpd d ro yhulu 0 koxood gh lo [vxvl dsÖûtdqod ex fu td]rehwrq eornodugdq k|uopû lvw qlo q glydu lghdo û nlog u ydq y prqrolw j|uq f n 4d]rehwrq od ex[du nholulflol y e n lvwloln jfq pdolnglu 6rq g u f d[ûÖ v v l]ro dvl dvÖ q q yl lqûddw pdwhuldooduÖ lo ptd lv g g i vu wo lûo qlu y wlnlolu 7rsgdq y s udn qg vdwÖûd oÖ[duÖopdvÖqÖq wdul[l fl lo l xo d Öqgdq %dnÖ6do dq ûrvvhvl fl np %dnÖ ued fdq 7ho dnv pdlo riÀfh#ddfd zzzddfd]

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p. 9

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv %8 1 0$75 6 4 2 721 ² &rpsduhg wr rwkhu exloglqj pdwhuldov lw gliihuv lq lwv gxudelolw oljkwqhvv zrunlqj olih khdw dqg iuhh]h uhvlvwdqfh hqylurqphqwdo iulhqgolqhvv $ffxudf ri jhrphwu lq wkh frxuvh ri surgxfwlrq ri dhudwhg frqfuhwh eorfnv lv vr kljk wkdw surylghv d ghyldwlrq rqo pp $q zdoo exlow xs ri vxfk dhudwhg frqfuhwh eorfnv qrw dw pruwdu exw dw vshfldo dgkhvlyhv zloo orrn lghdoo vprrwk dqg prqrolwklf $hudwhg frqfuhwh kdv h[fhoohqw ydsru shuphdelolw dqg juhdw khdwlqj fdsdflw fhoohqw dfrxvwlf lqvxodwlrq ,w lv hdvlo surfhvvhg dqg exlow xs wlphv idvwhu wkdq wudglwlrqdo exloglqj pdwhuldov dwh ri suhvhqwdwlrq surgxfwwhfkqrorj vhuylfh iru zkrohvdoh dqg uhwdlo 6lqfh -xo %dnx6do dq urdg wk np %dnx huedlmdq 7ho d pdlo riÀfh#ddfd zzzddfd 9

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p. 10

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv $48 6 00 0 &2 ² &2qlq pd h y ]l wl ´pd h nduerq td]Öµ nlpl wh[qlnl dg gdûÖ Öu d[xg vdg f ´nduerq td]Öµ dgodqgÖuÖoÖu %x u qjvl tr[xvx l vl rodq elu pd hglu 7 geltl 4lgd p kvxooduÖqÖq y wleel suhsdudwoduÖq vd[odqÖopd pgg wlql [h ol duwÖupdt oq rqoduÖq tdeodûgÖuÖopdvÖ ]dpdqÖ 6Ö[ÖûgÖuÖe oÖ[duÖfÖ td nlpl sly od[Öu y ûlu o ul tdeodud w|np ]dpdqÖ $onrtrovx lonlo ulq y plqhudo vxoduÖq lvwhkvdoÖ ]dpdqÖvdwxudvl d 3ly ûdpsdq û udeÖ y td]oÖ od[ÖuoduÖq lvwhkvdoÖ ]dpdqÖ nduerqodûgÖupd y v 4858 %8 4xux ex ² l vl gdgvÖ y u qjvl hohnwuln nholup tdelol wl ropd dq y doryodqpd dq nduerq td]ÖqÖq &2 e un irupdvÖgÖu 4xux ex g q vlqlq whpshudwxux ² d[ÖqgÖu 2wdt whpshudwxuxqgd y dgl dwprvihu w ltl ]dpdqÖ r ulp edûod Öu odnlq txux ex g ukdo e un y ]l wg q ex[dudr[ûdu y ]l w nholu y qg q vrqud q p y d glj u elu l tr pxu 4xux ex]xq n|p l lo w edoÖt g ql p kvxooduÖ duÖpideulndwodu ph y w u y vg p kvxooduÖ xpxuwd grqgxupd nlpl wh nruodqdq w p kvxooduÖ x]xq pgg w u]lqg vd[odqÖod elo u polqlq ûrx surtudpodugd u uvl wvwqq doÖqpdvÖ oq lvwlidg roxqxu +6dopdql no %dnÖ ued fdq 7ho dnv pdlo lqir#dtxdvdihd zzzdtxdvdihd]

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p. 11

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv $48 6 /7 48 &2 ² /ltxlg lv wkh whfkqlfdo qdph ri ´oltxlg fduerq glr[lghµ ru mxvw ´fduerq glr[lghµ ,w lv d froruohvv rgruohvv oltxlg $ssolfdwlrq :khq sdfnlqj irrg dqg phglflqhv iru vljqlÀfdqw lqfuhdvh lq wkh gxudwlrq ri wkhlu vwrudjh ,i rx vsloo ehhu zlqh dqg mxlfhv dv gulyh jdv ,q wkh surgxfwlrq ri vriw gulqnv dqg plqhudo zdwhu vdwxudwlrq ,q wkh euhzlqj dqg surgxfwlrq ri fkdpsdjqh dqg vsdunolqj zlqhv fduerqdwlrq dqg hwf 5 u lfh lv d vrolg irup ri fduerq glr[lgh zklfk kdv qr vphoo wdvwh dqg froru qrqfrqgxfwlyh dqg qrqÁdppdeoh 7kh whpshudwxuh ri gu lfh shoohwv derxw $w urrp whpshudwxuh dqg qrupdo dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh olnh lwv suhghfhvvru iurp wkh iur]hq zdwhu lw ehjlqv wr phow exw wkh gu lfh jrhv gluhfwo iurp vrolg wr ydsru ohdylqj ehklqg dq prlvwxuh ru rwkhu wudfhv :lwk lw rx fdq shupdqhqwo nhhs iuhvk shulvkdeoh irrgv vxfk dv phdw Àvk vhdirrg suhsduhg irrg yhjhwdeohv iuxlwv gdlu surgxfwv hjjv lfh fuhdp dqg hwf $ovr lw fdq eh xvhg q pdnlqj d vprnh iru vrph sduwlhv 6dopdql vwu %dnx huedlmdq 7ho d pdlo lqir#dtxdvdihd zzzdtxdvdihd]

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p. 12

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv $48 6 00 4858 %8 7 0ù 0 ² ´4xux ex]od w pl]o p µ qlve w q hql e un &2 nduerq glrnvlgl txux ex nlpl wdqÖqdq g q o ulqg q lvwlidg hwp no w pl]o p wh[qrorjl dvÖgÖu %x survhv ]dpdqÖ v vg q g vu wo kunw hg q txux ex]xq klvv flno ul v wk w vlu hglu y rqx w pl]o lu 4xux ex]od w pl]o p k tlt w q g sduodt q wlf o u qdlo ropdød lpndq yhulu 4xux ex o o wlq odwdq huo u gd[lo rodudt k wwd q o wlq o n o ul r fpo g q dø sl uh]lq vlolnrq er d tdoÖtoduÖ tdwudq elwxp ]liw pxp nli g ulq krspxû olunl dsduÖu lj u w pl]o p vxooduÖ lo hvwqono ulpl 1 pol survhvv gh lo 9d[w t qd wl $ydgdqoÖøÖq ghprqwdmÖqd hkwl df r[gxu 5$0ù 0ù.528/75 ù/75 0 7 0ù <ù&ù ù/75 5 00%5$1 68 .hudpln plnurxowudÀowuo p phpeudqoÖ vx w pl]o lfl Àowuo u lqvdq oq u uol rodq pdgg o ul r fpo g q døÖu phwdooduÖq gx]oduÖqÖ udelw ol [oruxq y [oruodpd lo p ky hglo q plnurrutdql]po ul nholup u n Àowudwgd v uw gx]oduÖq pltgduÖqÖ pto k gglqg vd[od Öu nl ex gd lqvdq rutdql]pl oq rswlpdogÖu .hudpln phpeudqoÖ p lû w Àowuo ul ed]dugd p|yfxg Àowuo uo ptd lv g xqlndo y kg wl w plq hgluo u w pl]o qplû vx xq nv n nh À wlq pdq w lvwlvpdu ufo ulqlq glj u Àowuo ug rogxøx nlpl v uÀ dw y d g lûn q pdwhuldoodu ho f g hohnwuln hqhumlvl v uÀ dwÖqÖq p|yfxg ropdpdøÖ lowuo u x]xq pgg w lûo p gl l yd[wodugd rqoduÖ nrqvhuydvl d hwp n uxu wlqlq ropdpdøÖ g]jq lvwlvpdu kdoÖqgd lvwlidg pgg wl loglu +6dopdql no %dnÖ ued fdq 7ho dnv pdlo lqir#dtxdvdihd zzzdtxdvdihd]

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p. 13

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv $48 6 /7 5 67,1 ² &ohdulqj e ´gu lfhµ lv udwkhu qhz whfkqrorj zlwk xvh ri kdug judqxohv fduerq glr[lgh nqrzq dv dq gu lfh ,w lv surfhvv dw zklfk wkh sduwlfohv ri dq gu lfh prylqj zlwk vxshuvrqlf vshhg lqÁxhqfh d vxuidfh fohdulqj lw &ohdqlqj zlwk gu lfh fdq dfklhyh wuxo h[fhoohqw uhvxowv 3hqhwudwlqj lqwr wkh prvw lqdffhvvleoh sodfhv gu lfh uhpryhv hyhq wkh prvw vwxeeruq vwdlqv lqfoxglqj rlo juhdvh uxeehu vlolfrqh sdlqw wdu elwxphq uhvlq zd prog julph $gydqwdjhv $evroxwho gu surfhvv 6dylqj r orw ri wlph frpsdulqj zlwk rwkhu phwkrgv rhv qrw uhtxluh glvpdqwolqj ri htxlsphqw 75 75 7017 756 7 5$0 0 528/75 75,1 00%5$1 :dwhu wuhdwphqw ilowhuv zlwk fhudplf plfurxowudilowhulqj phpeudqh qrw sdvvlqj vxevwdqfhv kdupixo iru kxpdq dv zhoo dv khdy phwdov À[hg fkorulqh dqg plfurrujdqlvpv ehlqj holplqdwhg zlwk fkorulqdwlrq nhhs frqwhqw ri kdugqhvv vdowv lq Àowudwh lq wkh ohyho ri pjo zklfk lv rswlpdo iru kxpdq rujdqlvp +rxvhkrog Àowhuv zlwk fhudplf phpeudqh lq frpsdulvrq zlwk h[lvwlqj Àowhuv surylgh xqltxh xqlw lq wkh pdunhw xdudqwhh ri txdolw ri wuhdwhg zdwhu 1r rshudwlqj frvwv lq frpsdulvrq zlwk rwkhu Àowhuv kdylqj frqvxpswlrq ru uhsodfhdeoh pdwhuldov dv zhoo dv xqdydlodelolw ri hqhuj frqvxpswlrq 1r qhfhvvlw iru frqvhuydwlrq ri Àowhuv zkhq wkh zhuhq·w xvhg iru d orqj wlph ,q fdvh ri surshu xvh olih wlph lv hduv 6dopdql vwu %dnx huedlmdq 7ho d pdlo lqir#dtxdvdihd zzzdtxdvdihd]

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p. 14

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv $48 6 00 2 75 6<6706 <80ú 5 ² fr :dwhu xpûdogÖfÖoduÖ xqlndo uhjhqhudvl d dotrulwplq pdolngluo u

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p. 15

ùûwludnoÖoduÖq 6l dkÖvÖ /lvw ri 3duwlflsdqwv $48 6 /7 627156 2 75 6<6706 ² :dwhu 6riwhqhuv fr:dwhu srvvhvv xqltxh dojrulwkp ri uhjhqhudwlrq 7kh vriwhqhu lwvhoi froohfwv gdwd derxw dfwxdo zdwhu frqvxpswlrq shu gd v ri zhhn dqg wkhq frpsduhv wkhp zlwk wkh zdwhu xvdjh lq d fxuuhqw gd &rqvlghulqj d uhvrxufh ri Àoolqj djhqw wkh frpsxwhu pdnhv ghflvlrq ² wr ehjlq uhjhqhudwlrq qrz ru wr srvwsrqh lw iru odwhu whup 7kh pdlq ihdwxuh ri vriwhqhuv fr:dwhu lv wkdw lqvwhdg ri fkhplfdo uhdjhqwv zklfk duh xvhg lq Àowhuv ri rwkhu eudqgv frpprq vdow lv xvhg :kloh fkrrvlqj ri prgho ri vriwhqhu fr:dwhu iroorzlqj wkuhh idfwruv kdyh d juhdw lpsruwdqfh &rqfhqwudwlrq lq zdwhu ri kdugqhvv vdowv wkh lurq frqwhqw 1hfhvvdu hiÀflhqf vhw ri ixqfwlrqv ri dxwrpdwlf frqwuro ri Àowhuv fr:dwhu gliihuhqw iru ghylfhv ri ydulrxv vhulhv dwh ri surmhfw ghyhorsphqw dwh ri suhvhqwdwlrq surgxfwwhfkqrorj vhuylfh iru zkrohvdoh dqg uhwdlo 6dopdql vwu %dnx huedlmdq 7ho d pdlo lqir#dtxdvdihd zzzdtxdvdihd]

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