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this report has been produced in collaboration with oma amo report int 2011 the renewable energy by 2050 energy report 100%

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wwf wwf is one of the world s largest and most experienced independent conservation organizations with over 5 million supporters and a global network active in more than 100 countries wwf s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature by conserving the world s biological diversity ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption ecofys established in 1984 with the mission of achieving a sustainable energy supply for everyone ecofys has become a leader in energy saving sustainable energy solutions and climate policies the unique synergy between our fields of competence is the key to this success we create smart effective practical and sustainable solutions for and with our clients oma the office for metropolitan architecture oma is a leading international partnership practicing contemporary architecture urbanism and cultural analysis the counterpart to oma s architectural practice is the company s research-based think tank amo while oma remains dedicated to the realization of buildings and master plans amo operates in areas beyond the boundaries of architecture and urbanism such as media politics sociology technology energy fashion publishing and graphic design wwf international avenue du mont-blanc 1196 gland switzerland www.panda.org ecofys p.o box 8408 3503 rk utrecht the netherlands www.ecofys.com oma heer bokelweg 149 3032 ad rotterdam the netherlands www.oma.eu this report was made possible by the generous support of eneco isbn 978-2-940443-26-0 front cover photo © wild wonders of europe inaki relanzon wwf

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contributors editor in chief stephan singer technical editor jean-philippe denruyter principal writer part 1 barney jeffries editorial team part 1 owen gibbons ellen hendrix martin hiller richard mclellan donald pols with special thanks for review and contributions from keith allott jason anderson bryn baker jessica battle esther blom kellie caught kirsty clough keya chatterjee thomas duveau wendy elliott magnus emfel lynn englum mariangiola fabbri ian gray bart geneen inna gritsevich johan van de gronden may guerraoui piers hart joerg hartmann patrick hofstetter richard holland yanli hou nora ibrahim andrea kaszewski sampsa kiianmaa alexey kokorin li lifeng pete lockley paul maassen yosuke masako david mclaughlin lászló máthé elisabeth mclellan martin von mirbach kevin ogorzalek stuart orr mireille perrin duncan pollard voahirana randriambola georg rast peter roberntz rafael senga shirish sinha gerald steindlegger rod taylor ivan valencia arianna vitali heikki willstedt mattias de woul richard worthington naoyuki yamagishi stefan henningson partner organizations ecofys part 2 principal writers yvonne deng stijn cornelissen sebastian klaus principal reviewers kees van der leun bart wesselink kornelis blok see complete list of contributing authors reviewers and advising experts on page 91 part 2 the oma-amo team was led by partner reinier de graaf and associate laura baird team tanner merkeley federico d amico vilhelm christensen amelia mcphee tim cheung dicle uzunyayla wwf the energy report page 3

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100 renewable energy wwf the energy report page 4

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© fritz pölking wwf contents 10 recommendations for a 100 renewable energy future 8 part 1 introduction a renewable energy future why we need it energy facts we have to face 100 possible the ecofys scenario in a nutshell the energy mix the challenges ahead · energy conservation · electrification · equity · land and sea use · lifestyle · finance · innovation · the future is in your hands 11 13 13 23 24 29 43 44 51 56 60 66 72 78 84 part 2 the ecofys energy scenario executive summary introduction approach demand supply ­ renewable energy excl bioenergy supply ­ sustainable bioenergy investments and savings policy considerations conclusions appendices references glossary 87 92 103 107 115 139 157 192 217 229 231 242 252 wwf the energy report page 5

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map 1 a new perspective on the world looking towards 2050 global gis database complete global set 2002 © amo wwf the energy report page 6

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by 2050 we could get all the energy we need from renewable sources this report shows that such a transition is not only possible but also cost-effective providing energy that is affordable for all and producing it in ways that can be sustained by the global economy and the planet the transition will present significant challenges but i hope this report will inspire governments and business to come to grips with those challenges and at the same time to move boldly to bring the renewable economy into reality there is nothing more important to our ability to create a sustainable future james p leape director general wwf international wwf the energy report page 7

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10 recommendations for a 100 renewable energy future promote only the most efficient products develop existing and new renewable energy sources to provide enough clean energy for all by 2050 1 clean energy 3 access share and exchange clean energy through grids and trade making the best use of sustainable energy resources in different areas 2 grids end energy poverty provide clean electricity and promote sustainable practices such as efficient cook stoves to everyone in developing countries 4 money 5 food invest in renewable clean energy and energy-efficient products and buildings stop food waste choose food that is sourced in an efficient and sustainable way to free up land for nature sustainable forestry and biofuel production everyone has an equal right to healthy levels of protein in their diet ­ for this to happen wealthier people need to eat less meat wwf the energy report page 8

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© martin harvey wwf-canon recommendations part 1 the energy report 6 7 transport reduce re-use recycle ­ to minimize waste and save energy develop durable materials and avoid things we don t need materials provide incentives to encourage greater use of public transport and to reduce the distances people and goods travel promote electrification wherever possible and support research into hydrogen and other alternative fuels for shipping and aviation 8 technology develop national bilateral and multilateral action plans to promote research and development in energy efficiency and renewable energy 10 agreements develop and enforce strict sustainability criteria that ensure renewable energy is compatible with environmental and development goals 9 sustainability support ambitious climate and energy agreements to provide global guidance and promote global cooperation on renewable energy and efficiency efforts wwf the energy report page 9

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© nasa wwf has a vision of a world that is powered by 100 per cent renewable energy sources by the middle of this century wwf the energy report page 10

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final energy ej/a © nasa introduction part 1 the energy report 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 figure 1 evolution of energy supply in the energy scenario showing the key developments source the ecofys energy scenario december 2010 100 per cent renewable energy by 2050 wwf has a vision of a world that is powered by 100 per cent renewable energy sources by the middle of this century unless we make this transition the world is most unlikely to avoid predicted escalating impacts of climate change but is it possible to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy supplies for everyone on the planet by 2050 wwf called upon the expertise of respected energy consultancy ecofys to provide an answer to this question in response ecofys has produced a bold and ambitious scenario which demonstrates that it is technically possible to achieve almost 100 per cent renewable energy sources within the next four decades the ambitious outcomes of this scenario along with all of the assumptions opportunities detailed data and sources are presented as part 2 of this report the ecofys scenario raises a number of significant issues and challenges the energy report investigates the most critically important political economic environmental and social choices and challenges ­ and encourages their further debate how are we going to provide for all of the world s future needs on energy food fibre water and others without running into such huge issues as conflicting demands on land/water availability and use rising and in some cases unsustainable consumption of commodities nuclear waste and regionally appropriate and adequate energy mixes the world needs to seriously consider what will be required to transition to a sustainable energy future and to find solutions to the dilemmas raised in this report answering these challenges the solutions to the energy needs of current and future generations ­ is one of the most important challenging and urgent political tasks ahead wwf the energy report page 11

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1.4 billion people have no access to reliable electricity wwf the energy report page 12

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renewable energy future part 1 the energy report a renewable energy future why we need it switching to renewable energy isn t just the best choice it s our only option the way we produce and use energy today is not sustainable our main fossil fuel sources ­ oil coal and gas ­ are finite natural resources and we are depleting them at a rapid rate furthermore they are the main contributors to climate change and the race to the last `cheap fossil resources evokes disasters for the natural environment as seen recently in the case of the bp oil spill in the gulf of mexico in the developing world regional and local desertification is caused by depletion of fuelwood and other biomass sources that are often used very inefficiently causing substantive in-door pollution and millions of deaths annually a fully sustainable renewable power supply is the only way we can secure energy for all and avoid environmental catastrophe at the same time more than 2.7 billion people are dependent on traditional bioenergy mainly from wood crop residues and animal dung as their main source of cooking and heating fuel2 this is often harvested unsustainably causing soil erosion and increasing the risk of flooding as well as threatening biodiversity and adding to greenhouse gas emissions traditional stoves are also a significant health problem the world health organization who estimates that 2.5 million women and young children die prematurely each year from inhaling their fumes3 with many developing societies becoming increasingly urban air quality in cities will decline further finite and increasingly expensive fossil fuels are not the answer for developing countries but renewable energy sources offer the potential to transform the quality of life and improve the economic prospects of billions 1 iea world energy outlook weo 2010 paris 2 iea world energy outlook weo 2010 paris 3 http www.iaea.org publications/magazines/bulletin bull442/44204002429.pdf © cat holloway wwf-canon energy facts we have to face 1.4 billion people have no access to reliable electricity1 while most of us take energy for granted as a basic right a fifth of the world s population still has no access to reliable electricity ­ drastically reducing their chances of getting an education and earning a living as energy prices increase the world s poor will continue to be excluded wwf the energy report page 13

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if everyone consumed as much energy as the average singaporean and u.s resident the world s oil reserves would be depleted in 9 years figure 2 world oil production by type http www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf oil and gas are running out supplies of cheap conventional oil and gas are declining while our energy demands continue to increase it is clear that our reliance on fossil fuels cannot continue indefinitely with the world s population projected to increase to over nine billion over the next 40 years business-as-usual is not an option according to the international energy agency iea4 production from known oil and gas reserves will fall by around 40-60 per cent by 2030 yet the developed world s thirst for energy is unabated while demand is rocketing in emerging economies such as china india and brazil if everyone in the world used oil at the same rate as the average saudi singaporean or u.s resident the world s proven oil reserves would be used up in less than 10 years5 competition for fossil fuel resources is a source of international tension and potentially conflict wwf the energy report page 14 energy companies are increasingly looking to fill the gap with unconventional sources of oil and gas such as shale gas oil from deep water platforms like bp s deepwater horizon or the canadian tar sands but these come at an unprecedented cost ­ and not just in economic terms many reserves are located in some of the world s most pristine places ­ such as tropical rainforests and the arctic ­ that are vital for biodiversity and the ecosystem services that we all depend on from freshwater to a healthy atmosphere extracting them is difficult and dangerous and costly to businesses communities and economies when things go wrong processing and using unconventional fossil sources produces large quantities of greenhouse gasses and chemical pollution and puts unsustainable demands on our freshwater resources with severe impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services 4 iea world energy outlook weo 2009 paris 5 per capita oil consumption in the u.s and canada is about 3 tons annually in saudi arabia about 5 tons and in singapore 10 tons proven oil reserves are estimated at about 205 billion tons in 2010 bp statistical review 2010 proven oil reserves are estimated 1,349 billion barrels oil consumption in the u s 18.86 million barrels per day world population is 6.9 billion.

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oil and gas are running report out part 1 the energy fossil fuel sourcing map 2 oil claims in africa p hearn jr t hare et al global gis database complete global set 2002 © amo wwf the energy report page 15

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