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english next why global english may mean the end of `english as a foreign language david graddol

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the moral rights of the author have been asserted the opinions expressed in this book are not necessarily those of the british council designed and produced by the english company uk ltd www.english.co.uk cover design by intro last minor revision jan 2007 © british council 2006 the united kingdom s international organisation for educational opportunities and cultural relations we are registered in england as a charity.

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foreword the growth of the use of english as the world s primary language for international communication has obviously been continuing for several decades but even as the number of english speakers expands further there are signs that the global predominance of the language may fade within the foreseeable future complex international economic technological and cultural changes could start to diminish the leading position of english as the language of the world market and uk interests which enjoy advantage from the breadth of english usage would consequently face new pressures those realistic possibilities are highlighted in the study presented by david graddol his analysis should therefore end any complacency among those who may believe that the global position of english is so unassailable that the young generations of the united kingdom do not need additional language capabilities.

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david graddol concludes that monoglot english graduates face a bleak economic future as qualified multilingual youngsters from other countries are proving to have a competitive advantage over their british counterparts in global companies and organisations alongside that many countries are introducing english into the primary curriculum but ­ to say the least ­ british schoolchildren and students do not appear to be gaining greater encouragement to achieve fluency in other languages if left to themselves such trends will diminish the relative strength of the english language in international education markets as the demand for educational resources in languages such as spanish arabic or mandarin grows and international business process outsourcing in other languages such as japanese french and german spreads the changes identified by david graddol all present clear and major challenges to the uk s providers of english language teaching to people of other countries and to broader education business sectors the english language teaching sector directly earns nearly £1.3 billion for the uk in invisible exports and our other education related exports earn up to £10 billion a year more as the international education market expands the recent slow down in the numbers of international students studying in the main english-speaking countries is likely to continue especially

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if there are no effective strategic policies to prevent such slippage clearly the effect of developments in that direction would not be limited to the commercial and educational sectors cultural and civil contacts and understanding would also be diluted the anticipation of possible shifts in demand provided by this study gives all interests and organisations which seek to nourish the learning and use of english with a basis for planning to meet the eventualities of what could be a very different operating environment in a decade s time that is a necessary and practical approach in this as in much else those who wish to influence the future must prepare for it rt hon lord neil kinnock chair of the british council

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contents foreword introduction key trends part one a world in transition 9 14 16 18 23 24 26 28 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 41 42 44 46 48 49 50 52 54 56 57 58 60 62 64 65 67 introduction from modernity to postmodernity section 1 demography the global population changing age structure people movement demography trends economy the rise of the brics globalisation ito and bpo the knowledge economy the redistribution of poverty economy trends technology communications technology language on the internet news media technology trends society an urban middle class future social cohesion the growing gap society trends languages the triumph of english the world languages system english challenged languages trends section 2 section 3 section 4 section 5 a transitional stage part one references

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part two education 68 70 73 74 76 78 80 81 82 86 87 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 103 104 106 110 111 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 125 126 127 128 introduction section 1 the educational revolution higher education the globalisation of universities international student mobility transnational education higher education trends learning english which model content and language integrated learning clil english as a lingua franca elf english for young learners eyl overview of models english in europe english as an asian language the `world english project the rise in demand if the project succeeds section 2 part two references part three conclusions and policy implications introduction section 1 global english as an innovation who is a native speaker policy implications a new hegemony of english the native speaker problem protecting local languages and identities beyond english managing the change the economic advantage ebbs away part three references a note on m ethodol ogy reading list acknowledgements figures and tables

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8 english next · introduction

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introduction this book explores some very recent trends in the use of english worldwide and its changing relationships with other languages it builds on the analysis given in a report i wrote for the british council in 1997 called the future of english the main findings of the future of english were » that the future development of english as a global language might be less straightforward than had been assumed » that the global spread of english raised not just linguistic educational and economic issues but also cultural political and ethical ones » that the key drivers of change were demographic economic technological and long-term trends in society » that the relationship between english and globalisation was a complex one economic globalisation encouraged the spread of english but the spread of english also encouraged globalisation » that the growth of china would have a significant impact on the world in which english was used and learned » that countries like india in which english is spoken extensively as a second language will play a major role in the development of global english left nelson s famous signal `england expects flies from admiral lord nelson s flagship hms victory in portsmouth 21 october 2005 on the 200th anniversary of the british victory against napoleon off cape trafalgar spain which prevented napoleon from invading britain there is a danger that the spread of english as a world language is seen by some as a new trafalgar a final triumph in an extraordinary centuries-long `love­hate relationship between england and france which has helped define the national identities of both countries and the role of their national languages on the world stage ap photo/chris ison english next · introduction 9

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it is difficult to recapture the sense of complacency evident amongst some native english speakers in the mid-1990s for whom even the first of these points provided a challenge the global `triumph of english was understood as a done deal and given the widespread recent discussion in the west about the global impact of china it is equally difficult to appreciate the general lack of awareness little more than five years ago of the rapid transformation already then taking place in east asia but the world has been changing so fast that it scarcely seems to be the same place as that of the 1990s in 1997 britain when the future of english was being prepared for publication tony blair and the labour party had just won its first term in office in the uk ending a political era which began when margaret thatcher led the conservative party to victory in the 1979 general election in the usa president clinton was starting his second term of office in europe the euro had not yet been introduced as a common currency princess diana was very much alive hong kong had not yet been handed back to china microsoft s `windows 98 operating system was not yet in use google did not exist information technology experts were mesmerised by the looming `millennium bug of y2k the `dot com bubble did not burst until march 2000 and the terrorist attacks of 9/11 were still four years away despite the extraordinary changes of the last few years one thing appears to remain the same more people than ever want to learn english the projections given in this book confirm that english learners are increasing in number and decreasing in age as a news headline it is not much of a story we ve become used to the idea of english growing in popularity across the world far from being news it has become one of the few enduring facts of global modern life ­ a trend which began in the late 19th 10 english next · introduction

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century when english was heralded from europe to japan as the new rising world language but at what point do we pause take a fresh look at what is happening and decide that what is going on now is not just `more of the same after scrutinising current trends including those which have not yet reached the statistical yearbooks i conclude that there has been a significant ­ even dramatic ­ qualitative change one that may be taking the language in a very new direction people have wondered for some years whether english had so much got its feet under the global office desk that even the rise of china ­ and mandarin ­ could ever shift it from its position of dominance the answer is that there is already a challenger one which has quietly appeared on the scene whilst many native speakers of english were looking the other way celebrating the rising hegemony of their language the new language which is rapidly ousting the language of shakespeare as the world s lingua franca is english itself ­ english in its new global form as this book demonstrates this is not english as we have known it and have taught it in the past as a foreign language it is a new phenomenon and if it represents any kind of triumph it is probably not a cause of celebration by native speakers this book attempts to describe this new phenomenon and explain the context in which it has emerged it also identifies some of the challenges that will be created over the next few years for everyone involved in the global education business the book does not attempt to provide a complete `state of the art account of global english it serves as an update for the future of english english next · introduction 1 1

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by identifying very recent developments which seem to be driving changes to the international and national status of the english language it has now become much clearer how much is at stake and how many stakeholders there now are in the global business of english the teaching of english has been seen in the past as largely a technical issue about the best methodology a practical issue of resources in teacher training and text books or a problem about imperialist propaganda we can now see that it has become much more than these things although such issues have not gone away if the analysis of this book is correct then english has at last become of age as a global language it is a phenomenon which lies at the heart of globalisation english is now redefining national and individual identities worldwide shifting political fault lines creating new global patterns of wealth and social exclusion and suggesting new notions of human rights and responsibilities of citizenship anyone who believes that native speakers of english remain in control of these developments will be very troubled this book suggests that it is native speakers who perhaps should be the most concerned but the fact is that the future development of english in the world is now a global concern and should be troubling us all the book sets out some of the facts and an agenda of issues it focuses particularly on the impact of the rising giant economies of india and china and the impact they might have on the use of global english no doubt there are more issues of both a global and local kind which would need to be added to create a comprehensive account of what is happening to english around the world but i hope that the book serves as a 12 english next · introduction

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good starting point to alert all of us who are affected by recent developments to some of the main issues and facts so we can join together in debating the most appropriate strategies for coping with the interesting times ahead i have suggested in this book that the current enthusiasm for english in the world is closely tied to the complex processes of globalisation if i am right then the future of english has become more closely tied to the future of globalisation itself global english is still not a `done deal it is already possible to see another story unfolding within the present century in which present forms of globalisation give way to greater regionalism and more complex patterns of linguistic economic and cultural power global english may yet prove to be a transitional phenomenon and that paradoxically may be in the long-term interests of native-speakers much will depend on how the challenges of implementing the `world english project as described in this book are managed where a question mark formed a salient part of the title of the original book perhaps this one should have included an exclamation mark we have moved significantly in the last five years from wondering about what was to come to trying to understand and seeking to respond coherently to what is already around us david graddol milton keynes january 2006 english next · introduction 13

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