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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report principal author cathy hammond research associate national dropout prevention center/network contributing authors dan linton director of research and evaluation communities in schools inc jay smink executive director national dropout prevention center/network sam drew associate director national dropout prevention center/network may 2007 national dropout prevention center/network college of health education and human development clemson university 209 martin street clemson sc 29631-1555 864-656-2599 ndpc@clemson.edu www.dropoutprevention.org communities in schools inc 277 south washington street suite 210 alexandria va 22314 800-cis-4kids cis@cisnet.org www.communitiesinschools.org © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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acknowledgments the authors wish to extend their appreciation to individuals from the national dropout prevention center/network and communities in schools inc who made valuable contributions to this publication including national dropout prevention center/network mary reimer information resource consultant marty duckenfield public information director peg chrestman information resource coordinator national dropout prevention center for students with disabilities loujeania bost director sandra covington smith research associate communities in schools inc daniel cardinali president susan siegel vice president of research evaluation and learning management louis moser associate director of research and evaluation christina holden operations manager research evaluation and learning management kristie little senior project manager communications citation for the report hammond c linton d smink j drew s 2007 dropout risk factors and exemplary programs clemson sc national dropout prevention center communities in schools inc © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report table of contents executive summary introduction significant risk factors for school dropout key risk factors for school dropout risk factor section charts and tables risk factor section notes exemplary programs and best practices to address risk factors exemplary programs and best practices section notes recommendations for cis programs bibliography appendices appendix a review and identification steps and criteria appendix b risk factor domains and categories appendix c additional risk factor charts and information 1 10 11 24 37 46 47 63 64 65 73 73 77 84 exemplary programs and best practices section charts and tables 55 appendix d individual and family domain risk factor descriptions 115 appendix e the matrix of prevention programs 150 appendix f exemplary program charts and additional information 184 appendix g descriptions of exemplary programs 216 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report executive summary purpose communities in schools cis is the nation s fifth-largest youth-serving organization and the leading dropout prevention organization delivering resources to nearly one million students in 3,250 schools across the country to further their network-wide commitment to evidence-based practice cis collaborated with the national dropout prevention center/network at clemson university ndpc/n to conduct a comprehensive study of the dropout crisis in the united states specifically the intent of the study was to 1 identify the risk factors or conditions that significantly increase the likelihood of students dropping out of school and 2 identify exemplary evidence-based programs that address the identified risk factors and conditions risk factor literature search the identification of significant risk factors was accomplished in several steps see chart a-1 in appendix a the first step included a thorough review of the literature to determine the risk factors and conditions that increase the likelihood of students dropping out of school twentyfive years of eric literature from 1980 up to december 31 2005 were reviewed to obtain an historic view of the issue materials from the national dropout prevention center/network library were included in the review other electronic databases such as psychinfo and medline were also explored for pertinent materials an internet search was conducted for ephemeral and unpublished items search terms included risk factors risk indicators at-risk youth dropout indicators and dropout identification bibliographies and reference lists from some key documents on dropout were also scanned for relevant items the first search resulted in around 3,400 potential citations for review which was eventually narrowed based on relevance research base and source to approximately 75 articles that were judged worthy of further analysis to best assess available research up to december 2005 on risk factors ndpc/n staff decided to review only the major articles in this group that specifically focused on high school graduation or school dropout as the primary goal of analysis forty-four of the citations met this criterion overall findings and trends the following overall trends emerged from the literature dropping out of school is related to a variety of factors that can be classified in four areas or domains individual family school and community factors please note given the limited scope of this initial research cis made the decision to focus on two domains individual and family factors there is no single risk factor that can be used to accurately predict who is at risk of dropping out 1 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report the accuracy of dropout predictions increases when combinations of multiple risk factors are considered dropouts are not a homogeneous group many subgroups of students can be identified based on when risk factors emerge the combinations of risk factors experienced and how the factors influence them students who drop out often cite factors across multiple domains and there are complex interactions among risk factors dropping out of school is often the result of a long process of disengagement that may begin before a child enters school dropping out is often described as a process not an event with factors building and compounding over time identifying specific risk factors the 44 studies used to examine major trends in dropout research were further analyzed to identify significant risk factors this analysis was limited to only those studies that directly analyzed the data source examined school dropout and/or high school graduation as the dependent variable for analysis collected longitudinal data over a period of at least two years examined a variety of types of predictors in several domains individual family school and/or community including student demographic data used multivariate statistical techniques or models to simultaneously control for independent relationships between student demographic and other individual factors factors in at least one other domain and the dependent variable included a sample of 30 or more students classified as dropouts based on the above criteria 21 studies that included analyses from 12 different data sources were identified for review the full report provides a list of the 21 studies by data source and timeframe for data collection as illustrated in the chart studies were published between 1974 and 2002 with data collection carried out in varying time periods from the mid-1960s until the mid-1990s although a few studies included national samples of students high school and beyond nels and nlts most were based in specific communities or school districts the studies not only span different time periods but also diverse communities rural suburban and urban as well as demographically diverse groups of students ses race/ethnicity and gender within these studies there were many differences in factors examined measures populations sampled sample sizes timeframes for data collection and statistical methods for data analysis to introduce some measure of control for this variation factors were pared down to only those 2 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report found to be significantly p .10 related to school dropout in multivariate analysis and significant in at least two data sources the resulting 25 significant risk factors across eight factor categories appear on the following page approximately 60 percent of the factors were individual factors and the remaining 40 percent were family factors complete descriptions of the factors may be found in the full report 3 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report significant risk factors for school dropout individual domain · individual background characteristics has a learning disability or emotional disturbance early adult responsibilities · high number of work hours · parenthood social attitudes values behavior · high-risk peer group · high-risk social behavior · highly socially active outside of school school performance · low achievement · retention/over-age for grade school engagement · poor attendance · low educational expectations · lack of effort · low commitment to school · no extracurricular participation school behavior · · misbehavior early aggression family domain family background characteristics · low socioeconomic status · high family mobility · low education level of parents · large number of siblings · not living with both natural parents · family disruption family engagement/commitment to education · low educational expectations · sibling has dropped out · low contact with school · lack of conversations about school 4 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report identifying risk factors by school level another goal of the study was to examine the identified risk factors by school level this information will help cis affiliates and sites to better target their efforts and make a direct connection between the services they provide or broker and dropout prevention to accomplish this goal ndpc/n developed matrices by school level for individual and family risk factors relying on data available from the selected studies two groups of matrices were developed the first set of matrices tables c-8 and c-9 in appendix c contained information by level from one data source and to be included the factor had to be 1 measured at a specified grade or school level for the analysis 2 found at that level to be significantly p .10 related to school dropout through multivariate analysis as seen in the table on the following page all risk factors were identified in at least one school level by a single data source all but one of the risk factors were identified at either the middle or high school levels eighteen of the 25 risk factors were identified in at least two data sources at either the middle or high school level fewer factors were identified at the elementary level four factors were found in at least two data sources to significantly impact dropout at all three school levels three of these four factors are individual ones and include low achievement retention/over-age for grade and poor attendance the fourth factor found to be significant across all school levels was the family factor of low socioeconomic status ses family ses level has been tied in numerous studies to other educational outcomes at all stages of a student s school career and its appearance at all levels in predicting dropout is consistent with this pattern on a cautionary note only tentative conclusions can be drawn about factors by school level research needed to meet the criteria for this report analysis of risk factors across several domains using multivariate statistics is sparse the fact that a specific factor is not mentioned in the chart at a specific level does not necessarily mean that it is not significant at that level it may indicate that quality data was just not available for that factor given this lack of consistent quality information on risk factors by school level there is a higher level of confidence in conclusions about impact at a particular level when the factor is found to be significant at that level in two studies rather than in a single study 5 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report significant risk factors by school level risk category and risk factor individual background characteristics · elementary school middle school high school has a learning disability or emotional disturbance high number of work hours parenthood high-risk peer group high-risk social behavior highly socially active outside of school low achievement retention/over-age for grade poor attendance low educational expectations lack of effort low commitment to school no extracurricular participation misbehavior early aggression low socioeconomic status high family mobility low education level of parents large number of siblings not living with both natural parents family disruption early adult responsibilities · · social attitudes values behavior · · · school performance · · school engagement · · · · · school behavior · · family background characteristics · · · · · · family engagement/commitment to education · · · · low educational expectations sibling has dropped out low contact with school lack of conversations about school key indicates that the risk factor was found to be significantly related to dropout at this school level in one study indicates that the risk factor was found to be significantly related to dropout at this school level in two or more studies 6 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report exemplary programs to address identified risk factors once risk factors are identified practitioners face the decision of which program or programs to implement to address these factors the success of prevention efforts depends greatly on the types of programs used making it crucial to select programs that have been proven effective for identified risk factors many programs however are being used around the country with little or no knowledge about their development or actual program effects thus a key goal of this study was to identify quality evidence-based programs already proven to address particular risk factors this work is only a beginning cis plans to continue this effort over time to provide local affiliates with as many options as possible the full report provides a detailed description of the methodology used to identify exemplary programs the process proved to be a considerable challenge given that many sources have identified effective or model programs or best practices often using ill-defined criteria in addition rigorous data on the effectiveness of dropout prevention programs is particularly lacking given the scope of this study ndpc/n began the search for exemplary programs with an existing matrix of evidence-based programs compiled by sharon f mihalic 2005 at the center for the study and prevention of violence institute of behavioral science university of colorado at boulder later in the search additional sources were reviewed to ensure adequate coverage of the identified risk factors to control for inconsistencies in rating criteria across sources it was decided to include only those programs that were ranked in the top tier or level by at least two sources were currently in operation had no major revisions since the ranking of the program had consistent positive evaluation outcomes and targeted k-12 school populations not children under five or college-age students fifty programs see the following page were identified based on these criteria the full report provides a description of each program including the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 program name and web site if applicable program overview primary program strategies primary program components targeted risk factors/groups relevant impacted risk factors research evidence and program contact information lessons from research on program implementation a number of lessons can be gleaned from the research on risk factors and evidence-based programs for practitioners implementing either existing programs or developing new ones first multiple risk factors across several domains should be addressed wherever possible to increase 7 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report the likelihood that the program will produce positive results second multiple strategies should be used to help assure program impact effective programs often used some combination of personal assets and skill building academic support family outreach and environmental/organizational change catalano et al 1999 gottfredson 1998 lehr et al 2004 third when adopting an existing exemplary program research points to the need for these programs to be fully implemented and to be implemented as they were designed midwest regional center for drug-free schools and communities [mrc 1994a national institute on drug abuse [nida 2004 fourth program planners who develop their own strategies need to use evidence-based strategies proven to impact the risk factors they are addressing and develop strategies based on best practice finally whether adopting an existing program or developing a new one practitioners need to use evidence-based strategies to evaluate programs to assure effectiveness 8 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report exemplary programs across ages adolescent sexuality pregnancy prevention program adolescent transitions program advancement via individual determination avid athletes training and learning to avoid steroids atlas big brothers big sisters brief strategic family therapy career academy casastart check connect children of divorce intervention program coca-cola valued youth program cognitive behavioral therapy for child sexual abuse coping power families schools together fast family matters fast track functional family therapy good behavior game guiding good choices formerly preparing for the drug-free years helping the noncompliant child keepin it real lifeskills training linking interests of families teachers los angeles better educated student for tomorrow la s best midwestern prevention project project star multidimensional family therapy multidimensional treatment foster care multisystemic therapy nurse-family partnership parenting wisely preventive treatment program project graduation really achieves dreams project grad project toward no drug abuse project towards no tobacco use prolonged exposure therapy for ptsd promoting alternative thinking strategies paths quantum opportunities responding in peaceful and positive ways safe dates schools families educating children safe children skills opportunities and recognition soar school transitional environment program step strengthening families program strengthening families program for parents and youth 10-14 success for all teen outreach program the incredible years too good for violence trauma-focused cognitive behavioral therapy 9 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report introduction communities in schools cis is the nation s fifth largest youth serving organization and the leading dropout prevention organization delivering resources to nearly one million students in 3,250 schools across the country to further their network-wide commitment to using evidence-based strategies in these efforts cis has determined that research evidence is needed on the risk factors that increase the likelihood of students dropping out of school and the strategies that most effectively address the risk factors to accomplish this cis teamed with the national dropout prevention center/network at clemson university ndpc/n to conduct a multi-component study to 1 review research on risk factors or conditions that increase the likelihood of students dropping out of school and 2 identify exemplary programs that address these risk factors ndpc/n carried out a comprehensive search and review of major studies prior reviews and metaanalyses completed as of december 31 2005 on risk factors for school dropout and on elements and programs proven to be effective in addressing these factors through empirical research the steps taken for each search and review are summarized in charts a-1 to a-3 in appendix a cautionary note it became clear during the search that there were a number of issues related to the quality of available research evidence on programs addressing school dropout and other prevention issues that make it difficult to conclusively identify effective programs many programs do not include rigorous evaluation of program effectiveness or collect little to no long-term follow-up data to determine if program effects endure over time catalano berglund ryan lonczak hawkins 1999 fashola slavin 1998 rumberger 2001 without clear evidence using control or comparison groups to show that a program has significant and lasting impact on dropout or other problem behaviors it is difficult to identify quality or model programs or the components that make them effective this lack of evidence also means that few if any of the programs would meet the screening criteria and evidence standards for the u.s department of education s what works clearinghouse as the goal of this review was to assist cis affiliates with their current efforts this review had to rely on the best available research evidence selected programs are evidence-based and met as many of the clearinghouse criteria as possible it is the intent of cis to continuously update the list of evidence-based programs and add critical elements as more quality evidence becomes available this narrative describes the results of the ndpc/n review the first section addresses the literature review on and identification of significant risk factors for school dropout the next section outlines the search for and identification of exemplary programs this section of the narrative also describes the search for and identification processes for key components and evidence-based strategies a number of appendices follow the narrative and include additional tables and charts and risk factor and program descriptions 10 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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dropout risk factors and exemplary programs a technical report significant risk factors for school dropout risk factor literature search the identification of significant risk factors was accomplished in several steps see chart a-1 in appendix a the first step included a thorough review of the literature to determine the risk factors and conditions that increase the likelihood of students dropping out of school twenty-five years of eric literature from 1980 up to december 31 2005,1 were reviewed to obtain an historic view of the issue materials from the national dropout prevention center/network library were included in the review other electronic databases such as psychinfo and medline were also explored for pertinent materials an internet search was conducted for ephemeral and unpublished items search terms included risk factors risk indicators at-risk youth dropout indicators and dropout identification bibliographies and reference lists from some key documents on dropout were also scanned for relevant items the first search resulted in around 3,400 potential citations for review which was eventually narrowed based on relevance research base and source to approximately 75 articles that were judged worthy of further analysis to best assess available research on risk factors up to december 2005 on risk factors ndpc/n staff decided to review only the major articles in this group that specifically focused on high school graduation or school dropout as the primary goal of analysis forty-four of the citations met this criterion these articles were reviewed and a summary of major trends found in these appears in the following section risk factors across four domains as for other types of educational outcomes researchers have found that dropping out of school stems from a wide variety of factors in four areas or domains individual family school and community factors hawkins catalano miller 1992 rumberger 2001 risk factors for dropout from all four domains were described in the articles reviewed a brief summary of some of these factors are described here beginning with the factors identified in the individual domain individual domain factors related to individual students high-risk demographic characteristics studies have linked leaving school early to a number of individual factors that put children and youth at greater risk this includes a number of unalterable background characteristics such as race/ethnicity battin-pearson newcomb abbott hill catalano hawkins 2000 ekstrom goertz pollack rock 1986 rumberger 2001 schargel 2004 teachman paasch carver 1996 gender batin-pearson et al 2000 goldschmidt wang 1999 rumberger 2001 immigration status rumberger 1995 limited english proficiency schargel 2004 and having limited cognitive abilities lehr johnson bremer cosio thompson 2004 lloyd 1978 wehlage rutter 1986 or some other type of disability whether it is physical emotional or behavioral lehr et al 2004 schargel 2004 wagner blackorby cameto hebbeler newman 1993 students with disabilities have been found to have similar types of risk factors for dropout as for other students lehr et al 2004 but are more likely to have multiple risk factors than other students wagner et al 1993 students diagnosed as seriously emotionally disturbed or who have learning disabilities are particularly vulnerable to dropping out kaufman bradbury owings 1992 wagner et al 1993 early adult responsibilities an individual s nonschool experiences also have been found to impact dropout when adolescents are forced to take on adult responsibilities it decreases their likelihood of staying in school until graduation possible responsibilities range from becoming a teen parent cairns cairns neckerman 1989 gleason dynarski 2002 rumberger 2001 having to take a job to help 11 © 2007 national dropout prevention center at clemson university and communities in schools inc all rights reserved.

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