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building a grad nation progress and challenge in ending the high school dropout epidemic 2010 2011 annual update written by robert balfanz john m bridgeland joanna hornig fox laura a moore a report by civic enterprises everyone graduates center at johns hopkins university america s promise alliance alliance for excellent education sponsor at&t 1

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table of contents introduction 1 civic marshall plan to build a grad nation 3 building a grad nation index where we stand 5 case study baltimore 11 civic marshall plan update 13 case study canton and cincinnati 15 progress on initial benchmarks 20 early warning and intervention systems 21 case study hillsborough 23 federal policy 25 conclusion 27 appendix 1 list of leadership council members 28 appendix 2 change in dropout factory high schools 2002 to 2009 29 3

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introduction america continues to make progress in meeting its high school dropout challenge leaders in education government nonprofits and business have awakened to the individual social and economic costs of the dropout crisis and are working together to solve it last year we reported that the number of dropout factories those high schools that graduate 60 percent or less of their students had declined from 2,007 in 2002 to 1,746 in 2008 we are now able to report that from 2008 to 2009 the most current data available the number of dropout factory high schools decreased by an additional 112 schools to 1,634 representing an annual rate of progress approximately three times as fast as the previous period by 2009 approximately 580,000 fewer students attended a dropout factory high school compared to the beginning of the decade although the national high school graduation rate is still too low1 and too few of our graduates have the skills they need to succeed after high school an essential foundation has been laid to significantly increase graduation rates to 90 percent for the class of 2020 and concerted efforts to rise to a standard of excellence are bearing fruit this report is the first in a series of annual updates that will be provided through 2020 as the nation makes progress and confronts challenges to meet this national goal important developments in confronting the dropout crisis will help us accelerate our progress this year all states districts and schools are required by law to calculate high school graduation rates according to a common formula and reporting standards and for the first time be held accountable for setting goals and meeting annual targets forty states and the district of columbia have raised their standards to help more students graduate with the skills they need to compete in the global economy the federal government has made strategic investments in secondary education and has provided states with incentives to enact reforms and fuel innovation that will help sustain momentum all the states have pledged to build longitudinal data systems to track student progress over time and a growing number of states and school districts are using early warning data so that those students who exhibit the first signs of dropping out receive the academic and community-based supports they need in turn nonprofits education associations businesses and foundations are aligning their thought capital and assets with a civic marshall plan to keep students on track to graduate from high school and ready for college and work 1 the national high school graduation rate for 2008 the latest year for which the averaged freshman graduation rate has been calculated by the u.s department of education was 75 percent up from 72 percent in 2001 1

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civic marshall plan to build a grad nation the civic marshall plan aims to end the dropout epidemic and establishes concrete goals and benchmarks for measuring progress along the way by 2020 high school graduation rates for those in the 3rd grade today will be 90 percent nationally mindful of the larger goal that by 2020 america will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world to meet this challenge a targeted and phased approach is suggested driven by an understanding of where the challenge is greatest and where concerted efforts can have the largest impact state and school districts as part of federal accountability standards are setting goals and targets for continuous and substantial progress in raising graduation rates and increasing college and career-readiness communities and nonprofits are mobilizing their assets on an unprecedented scale to work collaboratively to reach these goals the framework of the civic marshall plan is shared below prompting action within low graduation rate communities building and enabling state and district capacity to improve graduation and college readiness rates and accelerating graduation rates by strengthening the public education system start with early reading focus on the middle grades take action within low graduation rate communities turn around or replace the nation s dropout factories harness the power of nonprofits to provide expanded student supports link researchers to practitioners and policy build early warning and intervention systems create a multi-sector and community-based effort enhance high school and college graduation rate data build and enable state and district capacity to improve graduation and college readiness rates develop new education options based on student and community needs and interests develop parent engagement strategies elicit perspectives of students educators and parents reauthorize the elementary and secondary education act build linked common data systems and enhance data-driven decision making accelerate graduation rates by strengthening the public education system set high expectations and provide engaging coursework train and support highly effective and accountable teachers train and support highly effective and accountable principals connect the postsecondary completion agenda with high school graduation 3

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civic marshall plan benchmarks members of the class of 2020 now in third grade will need to meet a series of benchmarks to reach the national goal of high school graduation see chart below a coalition of national state and local organizations are pooling their resources to bring evidence-based strategies guiding research and accountability structures to the challenge of a 90 percent graduation rate by 2020 to succeed the effort will need to be data-driven community based and locally organized and supported nationally with human resources and capital despite progress in meeting the dropout epidemic many challenges remain although more than 580,000 fewer students attend dropout factories there are still more than two million students who attend these schools although six states had a reduction of at least 10 dropout factories from 2008 to 2009 three states experienced an increase of five or more while there have been significant federal and state investments in education reform over the last year the absence of stimulus funding may stymie efforts as states recalibrate their own budgets in addition reauthorization of the elementary and secondary education act and funding levels for various reforms remain uncertain civic marshall plan initial benchmarks to earn 600,000 more diplomas for the class of 2020 than the class of 2008 we set benchmarks along the way by 2012 more students reading on grade level by beginning of 5th grade chronic absenteeism significantly reduced needs assessments conducted for all dropout factory communities by 2013 each low graduation school district has an early warning intervention system re-design of middle schools a non-profit mentor for every 15-20 off-track students by 2016 all dropout factories in process of being transformed or replaced transition student supports in grades 8-10 compulsory school age increased to 18 in all states clear pathways to college and career 4

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building a grad nation index where we stand in spite of these challenges the net reduction of 373 dropout factories between 2002 and 2009 close to a 20 percent improvement serves as a testament to the hard strategic work of the last decade the remaining 1,634 schools serve as a challenge for all of us to learn from our successes recalibrate our efforts where we have failed and maintain the momentum of the last few years ensuring that more students graduate from high school both preserves investments made in early childhood education and prepares a generation for the rigors of college and the workforce increasing high school and college readiness rates helps individuals lead more productive lives and strengthens our economy and nation this report provides an update on our progress in implementing the civic marshall plan and highlights the challenges that remain as our nation works to meet its goal national progress and challenge in reducing the number of dropout factories progress 112 fewer dropout factories in 2009 than in 2008 183,701 fewer students attended dropout factories in 2009 than in 2008 six states california connecticut illinois north carolina south carolina and tennessee had a reduction of at least 10 dropout factories in the last year all 50 states have the capacity to follow individual students over time 212 early college high schools have opened since 2002 challenges 1,634 remain 2.1 million students still attend dropout factories three states georgia new york and ohio experienced an increase of five or more dropout factories only 23 states provide data on student progress to schools teachers and parents less than half of all students nationally graduate college-ready 16 states produce early warning indicator reports using student-level longitudinal data the serve america act created an education corps to increase national service supports in low-performing schools a range of federal and state legislation aimed at reducing the dropout crisis has been introduced most states do not have early warning and intervention systems and do not yet track attendance or behavior congress is considering a bill to eliminate funding for the corporation for national and community service esea should be reauthorized and other legislation that could help reduce the dropout crisis should be considered by congress and state legislatures 5

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dropout factories change in naon total number of high schools with a promo7ng power of 60 or below class of 2008 class of 2009 change in number of schools percent change 1,746 1,634 -112 -6.4 examining the number of students attending dropout factories shows even greater improvement indicating not only a reduction in these schools but also a decline in the number of students attending those that remain between 2008 and 2009 the number of students attending dropout factory high schools in which graduation is too often no better than a 50-50 proposition declined by 8 percent or 183,000 from 2,243,000 to 2,060,000 students overall the number of students attending dropout factories declined from 2.6 million in 2002 to 2.1 million in 2009 when examining state level changes between 2008 and 2009 some similarities and some differences to the changes observed between 2002 and 2008 emerge as was reported in building a grad nation progress and challenge in ending the high school dropout epidemic national level improvement is built on divergent outcomes at the state level as seen in table 2 between 2008 and 2009 18 states witnessed a decline of three or more dropout factories a greater number of states 23 in total essentially stayed the same with changes of plus or minus two or fewer dropout factories unfortunately nine states experienced increases of three or more dropout factories 6

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change in dropout factory high schools 2008 to 2009 dropout factory high schools by state/region 2008 total number of schools 2009 total number of schools change in the number of high school students attending a high school with a promoting power ratio of 60 or less2 -14,492 -9,307 -5,930 -54 444 511 411 2,311 6,178 -19,928 -25,599 -383 -4,533 -3,954 -2,848 -2,478 -1,283 4 -286 1,667 -5,397 2,269 -42,821 -29,294 -13,783 -11,877 -29,682 5,999 -1,560 -2,243 -4,217 -529 991 2,320 2,966 4,918 4,736 2,932 9,492 -58,831 west california nevada arizona colorado new mexico oregon idaho wyoming utah hawaii washington alaska montana subtotal total 146 34 29 24 27 4 5 1 2 11 23 6 1 313 1,740 121 28 26 21 24 3 4 1 2 11 24 7 2 274 1,627 -25 -6 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 -39 -113 -60,811 -6,045 3,614 -1,218 -2,115 -1,343 -198 -1 975 -52 1,375 2,364 1,384 -62,071 -183,651 region northeast connecticut pennsylvania new jersey rhode island new hampshire vermont maine massachusetts new york subtotal midwest illinois missouri kansas indiana south dakota minnesota iowa north dakota nebraska wisconsin michigan ohio subtotal south south carolina north carolina tennessee florida texas alabama kentucky delaware louisiana west virginia oklahoma maryland mississippi virginia arkansas georgia subtotal change 14 59 20 8 0 0 1 21 129 252 56 20 10 18 3 7 2 1 5 9 75 63 269 84 108 34 147 163 45 25 10 54 2 16 27 38 25 8 120 906 1 53 16 8 1 1 2 24 139 245 36 17 7 16 1 5 1 1 5 12 78 68 247 59 92 24 138 159 41 22 8 54 2 18 29 42 29 14 130 861 -13 -6 -4 0 1 1 1 3 10 -7 -20 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 5 -22 -25 -16 -10 -9 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 10 -45 2 promoting power is the ratio of the number of 12th graders enrolled in a given year divided by the number of 9th graders enrolled three years earlier two years earlier for 10th to 12th grade high schoolers 7

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the 2009 results diverge from the trends observed earlier in the decade in two notable ways first several of the states that witnessed significant gains between 2002 and 2008 had some backsliding in 2009 whereas some states that had minimal improvement or even went backwards prior to 2009 experienced substantial improvements together these facts illustrate that reform is seldom a linear process see appendix 2 for 2002 to 2009 changes challenges and successes states where number of high schools with a promo6ng power of 60 or below have increased by 5 or more change from 2008 to 2009 states where number of high schools with a promo6ng power of 60 or below have decreased by 10 or more change from 2008 to 2009 georgia new york ohio 10 10 5 california south carolina illinois north carolina connecbcut tennessee -25 -25 -20 -16 -13 -10 8

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change in the number of low graduation rate schools by region change by region midwest northeast southeast west class of 2008 class of 2009 change in number of schools percent change 269 247 -22 -8.2 252 245 -7 -2.8 912 868 -44 -4.8 313 274 -39 -12.5 change in the number of low graduation rate schools by locale change by locale ci/es suburbs towns rural class of 2008 class of 2009 change in number of schools percent change 879 849 -30 -3.4 385 367 -18 -4.7 133 123 -10 -7.5 349 295 -54 -15.5 9

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whereas the improvements witnessed through 2008 were primarily driven by gains in the south and within suburbs and towns the gains between 2008 and 2009 were also driven by improvements in the west and midwest and within urban and rural areas while it is important not to overstate the significance of gains in a single year it is noteworthy that urban and rural schools that had proven to be the most challenging to reform are showing at least in some locales signs of forward movement and are possibly pointing to progress for the future overall the results for the class of 2009 reinforce the main conclusions of building a grad nation progress and challenge in ending the high school dropout epidemic which looked at change from 2002 to 2008 the nation is making progress in reducing the number of dropout factories and the percentage of students who attend them this progress however has been uneven some states showed significant improvements which highlights that progress is not always incremental others however saw more modest gains some were stagnant and a few moved in the wrong direction this reinforces the notion that actions at the school community and state levels matter particularly when efforts are made to comprehensively apply what evidence tells us works refining and customizing broad lessons learned to address local experiences resources and conditions and staying with it over time ­ six eight ten years ­ leads to sustained improvements more limited or scattershot efforts do not we need to continue to study the nation s success stories additional case studies are included in this report and work to develop the capacity of the districts communities and states that continue to struggle more broadly the nation needs to continue to accelerate its efforts to stay on track to meet its education goals 10

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baltimore revitalizing a school system the upswing in the high school graduation rateover time and in baltimore innovation development of new capabilities · city public schools is a story about reversing urban school sought out partners system decline through the re-design of secondary schooling enhanced parental and student choice strong community the combination of school choice student-based budgeting · partnerships and sustained strategic effort during the last half non-selective admissions new schools and school-based of the empowerment baltimore saw great change its population 20th century propels continuous improvements as schools declined 30 percent asstudents now compete for both white and black middle class families fled to the suburbs and public school enrollment dropped 60 percent eight selective city-wide high schools serving 30 lessons learned percent of high school students maintained relatively high external partners while graduation rates at the comprehensive graduation rates and funders played a consistently supportive role in baltimore school redesign operation and outcomes high schools plummeted some lessons learned include from 1994 to 1997 maryland identified seven of the nine comprehensive baltimoresignificant funding from the bill districts can t do it alone high schools as reconstitutioneligible in 1997 legislators created local foundations managed melinda gates foundation and nine a city-state partnership that brought additional resources to the city schools provided through baltimore s fund for educational excellence while re-toolingfor the creation of innovation high schools anda resources management and accountability and creating new board of commissioners jointly appointed bycommunities smaller high schools federal small learning the governor and mayor with the structure set there schools to build on grants assisted with the breakup of largewas roomfederal school work that began in the 1990s and continuing effort has caused improvement grant funds are helping to re-start and turnaround achievement and graduation rates to rise schools race to top the few remaining large middle and high district-wide funds are supporting extensive professional development and signs of significant improvement data driven reform efforts baltimore city public schools high school graduation rate schools can t do it alone innovationto a four-year adjusted increased from 42.6 percent in 1996 schools were uniformly co-operated with external partners including groups at johns cohort rate of more than 60 percent for the class of 2010 and a hopkins university coppin state university the university of five-year graduation rate of 64 percent for the class of 2009 maryland school of law the national academy of finance and the baltimore schools saw other significant improvements the new york city-based replications inc later transformation the number of major disciplinary events fell by nearly 58 · schools and alternative schools2009 percent between 2004 and followed this same pattern of partnership and both national non-profits like diplomas plus school enrollment stabilized in 2006 at 81,000 and by · and local non-profits injected additional capacity 2009-10 rose to 83,000 city public schools and supported by local and national foundanumber of students who passed the maryland high school tions conducts strategic data analysis and rapid response studies assessments doubled from 2005 to 2010 and tripled for students to inform decision-making in poverty a score of 3 or higher increased by 25 percent similarly the partners can schoolin driving continuous improvement the middle assist student achievement on required maryland · new baltimore mayor is a major leaderandeducation reform,stuassessments continues to improve of the percentage of committed scoring at aligning city services to support and reading dents to better the advanced level in mathematics improved attendance graduation rates the last four years landmark teachhas more than doubled in and literacy the ers contract approved by union membership in 2010 positions beginning in 2007 rising high school students could choose · baltimore as one of the country s leading districts in acknowledgtheir high school in 2010 elementary students and their families ing and rewarding teacher achievement began choosing middle schools meeting the graduationwas removed from state in 2009 the school system challenge · with expanded options for families and students solid partnerships the school autonomy and competition atof urban boards of increased board received the 2010 council the school level · education annual award for urban school board excellence for baltimore has set a path of school improvement that embraces its efforts to community partnerships baltimore collaboration andguide the system with a steady hand city public schools have continued to lay the groundwork for long-term the foundations for progress 1997-2010 partnerships among city administrators teachers business leaders and foundation partners to drive student achievement reforms reduce absenteeism and raise the graduation rates of baltimore reforms in schools focused on the elementary grades while city public the 1990s baltimore s subsequent progress during the 2000 s began when many comprehensive high schools were broken up into smaller schools or replaced with new innovation high schools large middle schools were then phased out leaving only four remaining in 2011 and were replaced by k-8 and 6-12 schools the current superintendent accelerated these efforts and brought them to scale through the creation of new middle high and alternative schools the current and prior superintendents also reorganized and reduced central office staff and budgets culminating in the shifting of budget control to schools through the introduction of weighted per pupil student funding and mandatory parental involvement in forming school budgets empowering principals and school leadership teams a few of the most important features underlying progress include · the 2001 blueprint for baltimore s neighborhood high schools established the plan for small independent innovation high schools though its ideas have been modified it provided a sustained framework for action and established a rigorous review process for proposed new schools · reform was not one size fits all the school district encouraged innovation development of new capabilities over time and sought out partners corrective action wise partners can influence policies the open society instithe improvement in the african-american male graduation · tute osi and the school district partnered with other reform rate largely drove the graduation rate increase in 2006-07 and community partnersalmost equal numbers of african district s the city schools had to examine and redesign the american discipline and suspension policiesby 2010 the ratio was almost male graduates and dropouts to get students back into classrooms graduates to one dropout three and on-track to graduation they later turned their attention to attendance issues supporting a student attendance with the resolution of a long-standing federal lawsuit and the · workgroup that closely examined data on chronic absentee2010 end of court oversight service delivery and outcomes have ism and organized a multi-agency response outcomes to date improved for the system s special education students who include a dramatic decrease in chronic absenteeism in the middle make up 15 percent of the student body grades coinciding with an overall decline in suspensions partners can assist with 2010 and the number of students receiving between 2005 and understanding data the baltimore education research collaborative composed of representatives from morgan state university johns hopkins university and baltimore · enrollment in advanced placement courses more than doubled 11

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