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boscmun delegates topic manual for weapons of mass destruction wmd subtopics include 1 terrorism 2 disarmament 3 non-proliferation 4 icbm slbm s

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2 table of contents vocabulary list current international issues/status countries that possess or want to possess wmds international treaties/agreements current hot spots or hot topics nuclear winter sdi middile defens system iran q a iran the nuclear issue north korea talks reach stalemate tested early by north korea obama has few options background information types of wmd s nuclear atomic hydrogen biological anthrax botulinum toxin chemical vx mustard gas sarin radiological dirty bombs history of problem subtopics terrorism disarmament and non-proliferation strategic nuclear warheads around the world icbm slbm s sources page 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 11 12 13 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 22 22 24

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3 vocabulary list manhattan project proliferation first strike disarmament sdi strategic defense initiative slbm submarine launched ballistic missile icbm inter-continental ballistic missile ctbt comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty start strategic arms reduction treaties 1,2 3 dirty bomb cold war arms race sanctions nuclear regulatory commission ballistic missiles mutually assured destruction mad salt strategic arms limitation treaty non-proliferation treaty abm anti-ballistic missile treaty iaea current international issues/status countries that possess or want to possess wmds acknowledged nuclear weapons capability china france india iran north korea pakistan russia united kingdom united states unacknowledged nuclear weapons capability israel abandoned nuclear weapons development · · south africa constructed but then voluntarily dismantled 6 uranium bombs belarus kazakhstan ukraine when soviet union broke up these former states possessed nuclear warheads that they have since given up.

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4 international treaties/agreements international agreements official efforts at arms control have made some progress but only very slowly the first resolution 1946 of the general assembly of the united nations set up an atomic energy commission to make proposals for the peaceful uses of atomic energy and for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction the commission concentrated debate on the baruch plan for an international agency to control atomic power and weapons and passed it but the plan was vetoed by the ussr in the security council as the cold war progressed the commission reached an impasse 1948 with the proliferation of nuclear weapons concern over the situation became more acute in 1952 a un disarmament commission was formed under the security council it became the repository for all disarmament proposals under un auspices in 1953 a commission subcommittee was set up consisting of canada france great britain the united states and the ussr in this subcommittee which met intermittently from 1954 to 1957 there was basic disagreement between east and west the west held that an international control system and on-site inspection must be developed before disarmament could proceed the ussr stated that the western position would result in inspection without disarmament and proposed instead an immediate ban on nuclear weapons without inspection but with possible later but unspecified controls conferences among the united states great britain and the soviet union on the formulation of a treaty to ban nuclear testing began in geneva in 1958 the same year these three powers agreed to suspend nuclear testing for one year the voluntary moratorium continued until it was broken by the soviet resumption of testing 1961 the un disarmament commission expanded 1958 to include all members of the united nations was reduced in 1962 to 18 members soon afterward france withdrew in 1963 the united states great britain and the soviet union reached the moscow agreement which banned testing in the atmosphere in outer space and underwater other discussions were conducted simultaneously by the 18-member un disarmament commission no agreement was reached on arms limitation although the soviet union and the united states moved closer together on the issue of the proliferation of nuclear weapons the two countries proposed 1968 to the commission a 25-year nonproliferation agreement that was later approved by the un general assembly and took effect in 1970 it was made permanent in 1995 the treaty has been ratified by over 180 nations north korea threatened to withdraw in 1993 and 1994 and non-signatory nations that have or develop nuclear weapons are not bound by the treaty a comprehensive test ban treaty was approved by the un general assembly and signed in 1996 over 150 nations have now signed the treaty prohibits all nuclear testing establishes a worldwide network of monitoring stations and allows for inspections of suspicious sites conservative opposition to the treaty in the united states led the senate to reject ratification in 1999 the soviet union and the united states had begun strategic arms limitation talks salt in the late 1960s and in 1972 agreed to limit antiballistic missiles and reached an interim accord limiting intercontinental ballistic missiles another interim salt agreement was reached in nov 1974 that limited ballistic missile launchers salt ii which banned new icbms and limited other delivery vehicles was signed in 1979 it was never ratified but both countries announced they would adhere to it in 1982 the united states and soviet union began a new set of negotiations called start strategic arms reduction talks in 1987 president reagan and soviet leader mikhail gorbachev signed the inf treaty to eliminate intermediate-range nuclear forces and a start treaty signed by president bush and gorbachev in 1991 called for additional reductions in u.s and soviet nuclear arsenals and on-site inspections in response to increasing soviet political instability bush announced 1991 the elimination of most u.s.

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5 tactical nuclear arms took strategic bombers off alert status and called for further reductions in ballistic missiles with the ussr s disintegration its nuclear arms passed to belarus kazakhstan russia and ukraine the republics pledged to abide by existing treaties and remove outlying weapons to russia for destruction in 1993 bush and russian president yeltsin signed a start ii treaty that called for cutting nuclear warheads by two thirds by 2003 and probably sooner under modifications agreed to in 1994 and eliminating those weapons most likely to be used in a first strike ukraine fearing russian domination did not ratify start and the 1970 nonproliferation treaty until 1994 but by 1996 the nuclear arsenals of belarus kazakstan and ukraine had been dismantled on september 10 1996 the un general assembly adopted the comprehensive nuclear test-ban treaty and on september 16 1996 member states were given the opportunity to sign the treaty to date the status of countries who have signed or ratified this treaty are as follows countries that are italicized only have signed the treaty while countries that are italicized and underlined have both signed and ratified the treaty algeria argentina australia austria bangladesh belgium brazil bulgaria canada chile china colombia democratic people s republic of korea democratic republic of the congo egypt finland france germany hungary india indonesia iran islamic republic of israel italy japan mexico netherlands norway pakistan peru poland romania republic of korea russian federation slovakia south africa spain sweden switzerland turkey ukraine united kingdom of great britain and northern ireland united states of america viet nam current hot spots or hot topics nuclear winter is the theory that the smoke and dust produced by a large nuclear war would result in a prolonged period of cold on the earth the earliest version of the theory which was put forward in the early 1980s in the so-called ttaps report named for last initials of its authors richard p turco owen b toon thomas p ackerman james b pollack and carl sagan held that the ensuing low temperatures and prolonged periods of darkness would obliterate plant life and seriously threaten the existence of the human species later models which took into account additional variables confirmed the basic conclusions of the ttaps report and suggested that the detonation of 100 megatons the explosive power of 100 million tons of tnt over 100 cities could produce temperature drops ranging from 5 to 15 degrees strategic defense initiative sdi is the u.s government program responsible for research and development of a space-based system to defend the nation from attack by strategic ballistic missiles see guided missile the program is administered by the ballistic missile defense organization until 1993 the strategic defense initiative office a separate agency in the u.s dept of defense sdi popularly referred to as star wars was announced by president ronald reagan in a speech in mar 1983 and was derided by his critics as unrealistic space programs from other agencies and services were brought together in the organization it has investigated many new technologies including ground-based lasers space-based lasers and automated space vehicles critics argued that the original sdi program would encourage the militarization of space and destabilize the nuclear balance of power and was technologically infeasible based on untested technologies and unable to defend against cruise missiles airplanes or several other possible delivery systems in addition some countermeasures to sdi technologies such as decoy missiles and shielding of armed missiles would be simple to implement in 1987 the soviet union revealed it had a similar program.

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6 the end of the cold war led to criticism that sdi was unnecessary and in 1991 president bush called for a more limited version using rocket-launched interceptors based on the ground at a single site deployment of this system was tentatively scheduled for 2005 planned to protect all 50 states from a rogue missile attack it would contravene the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty apparently successful tests of the system s groundlaunched interceptors were later revealed to have been flawed 1999 or to have occurred after the odds of success had been enhanced 1984 1991 emphasis has also been placed on developing missile defenses for the battlefield iran iran s nuclear program began in the shah s era including a plan to build 20 nuclear power reactors two power reactors in bushehr on the coast of the persian gulf were started but remained unfinished when they were bombed and damaged by the iraqis during the iran-iraq war following the revolution in 1979 all nuclear activity was suspended though subsequently work was resumed on a somewhat more modest scale current plans extend to the construction of 15 power reactors and two research reactors research and development efforts also were conducted by the shah s regime on fissile material production although these efforts were halted during the iranian revolution and the iran-iraq war the current nuclear program is headed by the president the commander of the iranian revolutionary gaurd corps irgc the head of the defense industries organization and the head of iran s atomic energy organization iaeo these leaders continue the pursuit of wmd s and support chemical biological and nuclear programs against all pressures from the united states and its allies iran ratified the nuclear nonproliferation treaty in 1970 and since february 1992 has allowed the iaea to inspect any of its nuclear facilities prior to 2003 no iaea inspections had revealed tehran s violations of the npt since the end of the iran-iraq war tehran redoubled its efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction wmd and ballistic missiles in addition to iran s legitimate efforts to develop its nuclear power-generation industry it is believed to be operating a parallel clandestine nuclear weapons program iran appears to be following a policy of complying with the npt and building its nuclear power program in such a way that if the appropriate political decision is made know-how gained in the peaceful sphere specialists and equipment could be used to create nuclear weapons dual-use technologies have been sold to iran by at least nine western companies during the early 1990 s also in this atmosphere of deception unconfirmed reports have been made that tehran purchased several nuclear warheads in the early 1990 s it is evident that iran s efforts are focused both on uranium enrichment and a parallel plutonium effort iran claims it is trying to establish a complete nuclear fuel cycle to support a civilian energy program but this same fuel cycle would be applicable to a nuclear weapons development program iran appears to have spread their nuclear activities around a number of sites to reduce the risk of detection or attack if iran did acquire atomic bombs it would put pressure on other countries in the region to do the same many arab countries believe it is unfair that israel has nuclear weapons if arab countries notably saudi arabia but also egypt and possibly syria found themselves caught between a nuclear-armed israel and a nucleararmed iran it would greatly increase pressures to pursue their own nuclear options this could result in a regional arms race in the middle east that is likely to be quite destabilizing given the number and intensity of conflicts and instabilities in the region.

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7 bbc news q&a iran and the nuclear issue december 14 2009 iran is defying security council resolutions ordering it to suspend the enrichment of uranium on 27 november 2009 the international atomic energy agency iaea criticised iran for building another uranium enrichment plant iran is now considering an offer to have much of its enriched uranium converted into fuel abroad it has also said that it will build a further ten enrichment plants what are the new iranian plans it says it plans to build ten more uranium enrichment plants to produce fuel for a big expansion of nuclear power however it has not given a time-table and it is not clear who would build the nuclear power stations this programme would need iran is already operating one enrichment plant at natanz and is building a smaller one the subject of the iaea criticism under existing security council resolutions iran is not supposed to engage in such nuclear activity but it says its rights to enrich must not be infringed the times of london has reported that iran has tested a component for a nuclear bomb what is that about the times says in its 14 december edition that it has seen notes said to be from iranian officials and dating from 2007 about tests on a neutron initiator if confirmed this would indicate that iran was at that time at least interested in developing the ability to construct a nuclear device all this is likely to increase suspicion of iran and to speed up consideration of further sanctions what further sanctions might be imposed the most probable are more financial sanctions especially in the field of re-insurance to try to hit trade with iran the biggest target would be iran s imports of finished petroleum products the us and its allies would like russian and chinese support for a new security council resolution both supported the new iaea criticism but their backing for further sanctions remains in doubt the us would therefore seek the help of other countries notably those in the eu why has the iaea criticised iran again it argues that iran s new plant near qom should have been declared much earlier and is demanding that construction stops iran revealed the plant only days before president obama accused it of developing a secret enrichment facility which the president suggested might have a military use iran says it was on time with its declaration there is a dispute about its obligations to the iaea and is constructing the plant in a mountain in order to safeguard its technology from any attack the iaea has inspected the plant and says that it will have room to house 3000 centrifuges what is the significance of the uranium enrichment offer the plan is to take about 75 1,200kg of the low-enriched uranium iran has stockpiled and convert it into fuel rods in russia and france for use in the research reactor iran has run in tehran for years this produces isotopes for use in medical treatments it is potentially significant because it would lower tension with iran and get most of the enriched uranium out of iran reducing fears that it could be further enriched and made suitable for a nuclear device however iran would still go on enriching and it could make up the amount in about a year iran has given its agreement in principle but wants changes the head of the iaea mohamed elbaradei says that iran is offering to release the uranium in two batches it is not clear how or indeed if the agreement will go ahead president ahmadinejad has said that friendly relations with the iaea are over so it is also not clear as to how cooperative iran will be.

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8 why is iran refusing to obey the security council resolutions under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty npt a signatory state has the right to enrich uranium to be used as fuel for civil nuclear power such states have to remain under inspection from the iaea iran is under such inspection however only those signatory states with nuclear weapons at the time of the treaty in 1968 are allowed to enrich to the much higher level needed for a nuclear weapon iran says it is simply doing what it is allowed to do under the treaty and intends only to enrich to the level needed for nuclear power station fuel it blames the security council resolutions on political pressure from the us and its allies it argues that it needs nuclear power and wants to control the whole process itself president mahmoud ahmadinejad has repeatedly stressed that iran will not yield to international pressure the iranian nation will not succumb to bullying invasion and the violation of its rights he has said what does iran say about developing nuclear weapons it says it will not break its obligations under the npt and will not use the technology to make a nuclear bomb on 18 september 2009 president ahmadinejad told nbc news we don t need nuclear weapons it s not a part of our programmes and plans he said that nuclear-armed states should themselves give up their nuclear weapons shortly afterwards supreme leader ali khamenei who is reported to have issued a fatwa some time ago against nuclear weapons said we fundamentally reject nuclear weapons why has the security council ordered iran to stop enrichment because the technology used to enrich uranium for use as fuel for nuclear power can also be used to enrich the uranium to the higher level needed to produce a nuclear explosion there are fears that iran is at least acquiring the know-how so that one day it has the option of going for a bomb iran hid an enrichment programme for 18 years so the council says that until iran s peaceful intentions can be fully established it should stop enrichment and certain other nuclear activities the council s order is obligatory and supersedes other rights what precisely does the security council and the iaea want iran to do it wants iran to stop all enrichment activities including the preparation of uranium ore the installation of the centrifuges in which a gas from the ore is spun to separate the richer parts and the insertion of the gas into the centrifuges it also has to suspend its work on heavy water projects notably the construction of a heavy water reactor such a reactor could produce plutonium an alternative to uranium for a nuclear device the iaea has also called on iran to ratify and implement an additional protocol allowing more extensive inspections as a way of establishing confidence what does the iaea say about iran in september 2009 the then iaea chief mohamed elbaradei said in an interview that there was no credible evidence about an iranian weapons attempt he said i do not think based on what we see that iran has an ongoing nuclear weapons programme the iaea has iran s natanz fuel enrichment plant under its surveillance and in presenting his latest report in september 2009 mr elbaradei said since my last report the agency has continued to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in iran iran has cooperated with the agency in improving safeguards measures at the fuel enrichment plant and in providing the required access to the iran nuclear research reactor ir-40 at arak for purposes of design information verification on all other issues relevant to iran s nuclear programme however there is stalemate iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities or its work on heavy water related projects as required by the security council nor has iran implemented the additional protocol likewise iran has not co-operated with the agency in connection with the remaining issues detailed fully and completely in the agency s reports which need to be clarified in order to exclude the possibility of there being military dimensions to iran s nuclear programme the iaea also reports that iran is not cooperating with its request for an answer to questions about possible studies on nuclear warheads carried out in the past on 26 november 2009 mr elbaradei said the discussions on this issue had reached a dead end these past studies which iran calls fabrications have caused concern in that iran appears to have examined how to design a nuclear warhead.

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9 what about a reported secret iaea document on iran s work this was reported by the associated press on 18 september 2009 the document is said to state that iaea experts believe that iran has sufficient information to make a nuclear device and has worked on a warhead that could be carried on a missile when it is supposed to have done so is not clear this reported assessment goes beyond anything in published iaea reports on iran but in a statement the agency said it had no concrete proof that there is or has been a nuclear weapons programme in iran on 4 october the new york times also reported on the unpublished iaea document and earlier the institute for science and international security published what it said were excerpts president obama offered an extended hand to iran what happened to that president obama said if countries like iran are willing to unclench their fist they will find an extended hand from us he proposed that talks take place between iran and the so-called p5 +1 that is the five permanent members of the security council the us russia china britain and france plus germany on 9 september 2009 iran handed what appears to be its reply a five page letter called cooperation for peace justice and progress the letter offers global talks on a range of international issues including global nuclear disarmament but does not mention iran s own nuclear work president ahmadinejad had said earlier that discussion of the iranian nuclear issue was finished and that he would never negotiate on the iranian nation s obvious rights president obama has said there will have to be an assessment of the iranian position by the end of the year the implication being that further sanctions would be considered if no progress was made incentives are being offered to iran what are these the us russia china the uk france and germany say that if iran suspends uranium enrichment then talks can start about a long-term agreement on offer is recognition of iran s right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and the treatment of iran in the same manner as other states under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty iran would get help with developing nuclear power stations and be guaranteed fuel for them it would also be offered trade concessions including the possible lifting of us sanctions which prevent it for example from buying new civilian aircraft and parts what sanctions have been imposed on iran the us has imposed restrictions since the taking of american hostages in 1979 leading to a total trade embargo in 1995 in addition the un has imposed wider sanctions security council resolution 1737 passed in december 2006 mandates all un member states to prevent the supply sale or transfer of all items materials equipment goods and technology which could contribute to iran s enrichment-related reprocessing or heavy water-related activities or to the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems in march 2007 the council passed resolution 1747 this seeks to tighten the squeeze on iran s nuclear and missile programmes by preventing dealings with the state bank sepah and 28 named people and organisations many connected to the elite revolutionary guard member states have been told to exercise restraint in and to report the travel of individuals connected to these programmes imports of arms from iran are banned and member states are told to exercise restraint in selling major arms systems to iran loans are supposed to be limited to humanitarian and development purposes resolution 1803 of march 2008 extends asset restrictions and travel bans on more iranian individuals said to be involved in nuclear work and on more iranian companies it bans the sale to iran of so-called dual-use items items which can have either a military or civilian purpose as well as calling on governments to withdraw financial backing from companies trading with iran to inspect cargo going into and out of the country and to monitor the activities of two iranian banks what does the us intelligence assessment say about iran the national intelligence estimate plays down any early threat of an iranian nuclear weapon it assesses with high confidence that iran did have a nuclear weapons programme until 2003 but this was discovered and iran stopped it the nie adds we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear

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10 weapons the assessment admits that iran appears less determined to develop nuclear weapons than us intelligence had previously thought it says that the earliest date by which iran could make a nuclear weapon would be late 2009 but that this is very unlikely what are the chances of an attack on iran the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu constantly stresses what he sees as a potential existential threat from iran israel has reportedly carried out a major air force exercise seen as practice for a raid on iran it is sceptical that diplomatic means will force iran to stop enrichment and does not want to let iran develop even a theoretical capacity to make a nuclear bomb so the possibility of an attack by israel at least remains does everyone accept the nie report no israel does not the then israeli prime minister ehud olmert said on 12 february 2008 that israel thought iran was aiming to create a capacity for non-conventional weapons the present prime minister mr netanyahu takes the same view and in london on 5 march 2008 a senior british diplomat said many of us were surprised by how emphatic the writers [of the nie were i haven t seen any intelligence that gives me even medium confidence that these programmes haven t resumed even the director of us national intelligence mike mcconnell appeared to backtrack on 28 february 2008 in evidence to the senate armed forces committee in this evidence he said that iran had probably halted warhead design and weaponisation but pointed out that iran s continued enrichment of uranium meant that it was continuing with the most difficult challenge in nuclear production he said we remain concerned about iran s intentions tehran at a minimum is keeping the option open to develop nuclear weapons what other pressure has there been on iran on 17 october 2007 the us designated part of the revolutionary guard as a supporter of terrorism and the guard as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction for its alleged work on ballistic missiles the us imposed further sanctions on the guards commercial activities and on several iranian banks the eu has agreed to freeze assets of iran s largest bank bank melli and to extend visa bans to more iranians involved in nuclear and missile development is it not too late now to stop iran from acquiring enrichment technology iran thinks so and has said so its supreme leader ali khamenei has called this a great victory according to mohamed elbaradei the head of the iaea events have overtaken the current strategy and he thinks that iran should now be allowed to undertake limited enrichment but how soon could iran make a nuclear bomb experts believe that iran could enrich enough uranium for a bomb within a few months however it has apparently not mastered the technology of making a nuclear warhead in theory iran could by doing that it would signal its intentions and leave itself open to attack if it tried to divert material for a bomb in secret and was found out it would lay itself open to the same risk mohamed elbaradei has said that the threat of iran developing a bomb has been hyped doesn t the non-aligned movement support iran the nam representing 120 nations issued a statement in july 2008 supporting iran s right to develop peaceful nuclear power iran said this reflected international support for its position the statement did not directly criticise un sanctions against iran though it said that any issues should be dealt within the iaea it also appeared to accept that there are some problems remaining when it said diplomacy and dialogue through peaceful means must continue to find a comprehensive and long-term solution to the iranian nuclear issue don t existing nuclear powers have obligations to get rid of their weapons under the npt article vi commits them to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of

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11 the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament the nuclear powers claim they have done this by reducing their warheads but critics say they have not really moved towards nuclear disarmament critics also argue that the us and uk have broken the treaty by transferring nuclear technology from one to another the us and uk say that this is not affected by the npt doesn t israel have a nuclear bomb yes israel however is not a party to the npt so is not obliged to report to it neither are india or pakistan both of which have developed nuclear weapons north korea has left the treaty and has announced that it has acquired a nuclear weapons capacity on 18 september 2009 the iaea called on israel to join the npt and open its nuclear facilities to inspection the resolution said that the iaea expresses concern about the israeli nuclear capabilities and calls upon israel to accede to the npt and place all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive iaea safeguards israel refuses to join the npt or allow inspections it is reckoned to have up to 400 warheads but refuses to confirm or deny this story from bbc news http news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr 1/hi/world/middle_east/4031603.stm published 2009/12/14 18:15:49 gmt © bbc mmx bbc news q&a iran and the nuclear issue http newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co

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12 bbc news north korea talks reach stalemate december 10 2008 the united states says that talks aimed at ending north korea s nuclear weapons programme have reached stalemate the us envoy to the talks christopher hill said the six nations involved had made no progress on how to verify north korea s account of its atomic activity mr hill was speaking after the third and last day in the current round of discussions in beijing however some reports suggested he could extend his stay in the chinese capital to try to make some headway the chinese had earlier circulated a draft agreement to address the verification issue but this reportedly failed to win the approval of all sides tough long day in february 2007 north korea agreed to disable its plutonium-producing reactor and disclose its nuclear activities in return for fuel aid but progress in implementing this deal has been plagued by delays and the dispute over verification is the latest hold-up in october the us finally removed the north from a terrorism blacklist and in return north korea agreed to provide full access to its nuclear programme the two sides now differ on the terms of verification that were agreed as part of the deal north korea insists it never said samples of atomic material could be taken away for examination but the us asserts that the north did consent to the procedure mr hill said on wednesday that after a tough long day of haggling over a way forward the six parties involved did not achieve their goal significant progress in the talks would be a diplomatic victory for us president george w bush before he leaves office in january but many analysts say pyongyang is unlikely to strike a deal before president-elect barack obama takes over the white house the six-party process begun in 2003 groups north and south korea with china japan russia and the united states story from bbc news http news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr 2/hi/asia-pacific/7774663.stm published 2008/12/10 13:07:07 gmt © bbc mmix

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13 the new york times may 26 2009 tested early by north korea obama has few options by david e sanger facing the first direct challenge to his administration by an emerging nuclear weapons state president obama declared monday that the united states and its allies would stand up to north korea hours after that country defied international sanctions and conducted what appeared to be its second nuclear test mr obama reacted to the underground blast as white house officials scrambled to coordinate an international response to a north korean nuclear capacity that none of his predecessors had proved able to reverse acutely aware that their response to the explosion in the mountains of kilju not far from the chinese border would be seen as an early test of a new administration mr obama s aides said they were determined to organize a significantly stronger response than the bush administration had managed after the north s first nuclear test in october 2006 speaking in the rose garden after returning to the white house from camp david and meeting with his top aides in the oval office mr obama vowed to take action in response to what he called a blatant violation of international law and the north s declaration that it was repudiating past commitments to dismantle its nuclear program but as they had meetings every few hours including a lengthy session in the situation room on monday evening some of mr obama s aides acknowledged that the administration s options were limited much depends they said on the new president s ability to persuade russia and china to go significantly beyond the strong condemnations that they issued monday against north korea their former ally and a vestige of cold-war communism i think we were all impressed with the fact that the russians and the chinese denounced this so strongly rahm emanuel mr obama s chief of staff said in a telephone call yet turning that into effective action will prove a challenge efforts by the clinton administration to entice the north to halt its weapons program by providing it with oil and nuclear power plants and by the bush administration to push the country to collapse and then to try to seize its leaders assets all failed so did mr bush s second-term strategy reversal when he alienated hard-liners in his administration by reaching a deal with the north to dismantle its main nuclear plant a step the north began last year in recent months the north has renounced the accord and taken the first steps to restart operations and manufacture more plutonium for bomb fuel now mr obama must decide how to mix what he called stronger international pressure with a new set of diplomatic overtures at a moment when his aides are acutely aware iran and other nations are taking his measure examining the confrontation with north korea for hints of how he will handle complex confrontations to come while mr obama delivered a memorial day speech and then took the afternoon off to play golf aides tried to sift through the sparse data to determine exactly what abilities north korea had proved if any.

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14 initial seismic readings showed the blast at kilju exactly where north korea conducted its 2006 test was a several kiloton event according to one senior administration official if that judgment is correct the test yielded a somewhat bigger explosion than the 2006 test which was later judged a partial fizzle but it will take days or weeks of testing radioactive particles vented into the atmosphere to calculate the size of the device and even then there will be continuing debate about whether the north has the engineering ability to make a weapon compact enough to fit in the warhead of a missile much less to deliver it to a target the white house said that on monday evening mr obama called the leaders of the two strongest american allies in northeast asia president lee myung-bak of south korea and prime minister taro aso of japan promising that he would press for concrete measures to curtail north korea and vowing an unequivocal commitment to the defense of both countries while hardly unexpected that statement was considered an important signal by american officials who are eager to tamp down any nervousness among asian allies about whether a new and untested president is willing to face down a regime that has been defying washington since eisenhower was in the oval office but as japanese and south korean officials acknowledge they are less concerned about a direct attack from the north which would almost certainly result in a devastating american-led response than about north korea selling its twice-tested nuclear weapons technology on the black market much as it has sold missile and reactor technology in the middle east we re back to the same problem bush had one intelligence official said the threat is not that they will shoot off a nuclear weapon it s that they will sell nuclear material in emergency conference calls after the north gave less than an hour s notice through its mission to the united nations that it would conduct a test early monday mr obama s team agreed on some preliminary strategy one senior administration official said that the united states would never grant full diplomatic recognition to north korea or sign a peace treaty formally ending the korean war unless its nuclear capability is dismantled to devise a common response administration officials began planning to meet with asian leaders and eventually with the central player in the diplomatic drama china defense secretary robert m gates will begin the effort this week on a previously scheduled trip for an annual defense meeting and his spokesman geoff morrell said there is simply no greater security challenge facing asia than a nuclear-armed north korea he said mr gates would work to figure out how we collectively can prevent that from becoming a reality outside experts say it is probably a reality already a c.i.a assessment concluded that north korea had built one or two nuclear weapons during the administration of the first president bush and in the spring of 2003 while the united states was focused on iraq the north expelled inspectors and harvested the fuel for six or more weapons the second bush administration said it would never tolerate a nuclear north korea but by the time it left office none of that fissile material had been recovered perhaps the most powerful untapped sanction available to mr obama and his allies is contained in a united nations security council resolution passed after the 2006 test it authorizes the united states and other nations to halt and inspect shipping into and out of north korea for contraband missile parts or nuclear materials the sanction has never been enforced partly because of concerns that it could escalate hostilities with north korea the poorest and least predictable state in northeast asia.

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15 when asked whether mr obama would seek to intercept north korean shipping a step that could paralyze the country s trade a senior administration official said that s getting ahead of ourselves another senior official however said other than having the chinese cut off their oil it might be the only step that would show them we are serious the calculation about how hard to press the north is made more complex by doubts about who is making decisions in pyongyang kim jong-il whom north koreans call the dear leader appeared to have suffered a debilitating stroke last year mr kim reappeared recently looking gaunt thin and greatly aged but intelligence officials say they believe he is again making day-to-day decisions nonetheless they say a succession struggle has begun in the past the two countries most cautious about pushing north korean leaders to change course were china and russia so it was significant on monday that when work began at the security council on a new resolution both appeared to support stiffer penalties after having blocked steps in that direction after the north s test of a missile in april the russians were surprisingly adamant vitaly i churkin the russian ambassador to the united nations said that the world had to face down threats to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty which many view on the brink of collapse and the still-unapproved comprehensive test ban treaty reporting was contributed by william j broad from new york thom shanker and mark landler from washington and neil macfarquhar at the united nations background information types of wmd s nuclear nuclear weapons weapons of mass destruction powered by atomic rather than chemical processes nuclear weapons produce large explosions and hazardous radioactive byproducts by means of either nuclear fission or nuclear fusion nuclear weapons can be delivered by artillery plane ship or ballistic missile icbm some can also fit inside a suitcase tactical nuclear weapons can have the explosive power of a fraction of a kiloton one kiloton equals 1,000 tons of tnt while strategic nuclear weapons can produce thousands of kilotons of explosive force after world war ii the proliferation of nuclear weapons became an increasing cause of concern throughout the world at the end of the 20th century the vast majority of such weapons were held by the united states and the ussr smaller numbers were held by great britain france china india and pakistan over a dozen other countries can or soon could make nuclear weapons in addition to the danger of radioactive fallout in the 1970s scientists began investigating the potential impact of nuclear war on the environment the collective effects of the environmental damage that could result from a large number of nuclear explosions has been termed nuclear winter treaties have been signed limiting certain aspects of nuclear testing and development although the absolute numbers of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles have declined since the end of the cold war disarmament remains a distant goal atomic bomb or a-bomb weapon deriving its explosive force from the release of atomic energy through the fission splitting of heavy nuclei see nuclear energy the first atomic bomb was produced at the los alamos n.mex laboratory and successfully tested on july 16 1945 this was the culmination of a large u.s army program that was part of the manhattan project led by dr robert oppenheimer it began in 1940 two years after the german scientists otto hahn and fritz strassman discovered nuclear fission on aug 6 1945 an atomic bomb was dropped on hiroshima with an estimated equivalent explosive force of 12,500 tons of tnt followed three days later by a second more powerful bomb on nagasaki both bombs caused

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